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Just to drive the final nail into the coffin (hopefully) of this "They're sampling more Dems" argument.
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At first glance, you might say that the pollsters themselves are biased, skewed to the left. But that's not the best way to approach it. Polling firms call a random sampling of people and don't seek out different partisans. It wouldn't be accurate.
If you're calling a "random sample" of people, then a poll cannot be biased. It's just that simple. It only makes sense that a poll will have more self-identified Dems because there are more self-identified Dems than Reps. It wouldn't make any sense, for example, to randomly go through the New York City phone book and get mad because only 20% of respondents self-identify as "Black." If that's the answer I'm given, then I'm stuck with it.
More on the "They're oversampling Dems!!!" non-sense.
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The term “independent” is a lot more fluid than most people realize. When it comes to their voting behavior, most independents are actually partisans, regularly favoring one party or the other. Very few are authentic swing voters. Plus, when it comes to polling, party label is a matter of self-identification. Pollsters don’t seek out a fixed number of Democrats, Republicans and independents, and people won’t always provide the same answer when asked; that is, a registered Democrat might call himself a Democrat one day and an independent the next.
Obama takes the lead in RCP national poll of polls! Now, maybe all this nonsense about divergence of state and national polls and Romney momentum will be put to rest.
Obama takes the lead in RCP national poll of polls! Now, maybe all this nonsense about divergence of state and national polls and Romney momentum will be put to rest.
They're over-sampling Dems based on a 2008 voter turnout model!
What's really interesting is that if you go on RCP (which posts a lot of right-leaning content), they've even backed off the "We're leading in the national polls!" argument. Now they're down to the "Independents will break for Romney at the last hour!" argument.
That really makes no sense at all considering that most Independents, as the article I posted above says, are highly partisan voters. "Independent" is not synonymous with "Undecided." Furthermore, the polls already account for Independent and/or Third-Party voters. They don't necessarily represent a potential source of support that either Obama or Romney can tap into for additional votes.
It's the economy stupid. Yes, Nevada is tied up with the unions but with people losing their jobs and not having any extra money to gamble with I don't see how they can keep that state running.
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Out of the dozens of pollsters out there only one does it right!
Romney conceding Nevada to Obama
