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National polls are moving toward reality: Obama up +3 in Pew now.
Yup based on movement in electoral college irrelevant Northeast. Internals still looked good for Mitt. White share is at 74% Axelrod wants it at 72% in order to win.
You OVERSAMPLING DEMOCRATS people are sort of dense. Here's how it works:
They ask the caller what party they align with. They dont decide HEY ONLY CALL DEMOCRATS OR CALL LESS REPUBLICANS
Republicans don't trust the media so we hang up more.
Pew poll is fair it's just not a big deal. Plus 3 is statistically insignificant, Obama is below 40% among Whites and the increase is confined to Northeast.
No biggie but of course the media will run with it the race is over!! Obama is up 3!
Still holding on to Silver put CNN internals of last Ohio poll and apply them to Sos early voting file you just attached. You'll find Romney wins.
Also his little insight was crapped on by about everyone on twitter. Oh and did you catch Axlerod stumbling when confronted with the early voting situation in Ohio?
There's no way of telling the exact breakdown of early voting along party lines. Ohio doesn't even have party registration. Thus, the numbers in the video cannot be accurate. However, it is possible to get a sense of what the electorate in Ohio is looking like by examining the stats for each county. So far, Cuyahoga is on pace with 2008 turnout, considering that early voting started later this year than it did in 2008.
You can also get a sense of how things are shaping out by looking at polling data. As Time reported not that long ago, Obama was winning the early vote by a 2 to 1 margin. The latest NBC/WSJ poll has similar numbers.
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