***Presidential Polls*** #2 (gallon, party affiliation, voters, campaign)

[sanrene]

Originally Posted by nick is rulz

You clearly dont understand how polling works. Im not going to explain it though.

Because you can't..nothing can explain this except for a deliberate statistical BIAS meant to keep obama close.

[Ponderosa]

I see 538 has shaved a few more tenths from Romney's chances.

[nick is rulz]

yeah but Nate Silver is a partisan hack who doesnt know what hes talking about because some guys who want Romney to win said so

[stinkytofu10]

PPP

Obama +5 in Ohio and +4 in Virginia.

Still awaiting NC, FL, CO, NV releases tonight.

[Link N. Parker]

Originally Posted by stinkytofu10

PPP

Obama +5 in Ohio and +4 in Virginia.

Still awaiting NC, FL, CO, NV releases tonight.

Whats the skew? D+6?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by nick is rulz

yeah but Nate Silver is a partisan hack who doesnt know what hes talking about because some guys who want Romney to win said so

Yeah, but I'm a nerd myself and thus am partial to the sabermetrics movement and its translation to politics. I have a lot of faith in the approach Silver is taking and I think he will be proven to be pretty much right on the money on Tuesday.

[nick is rulz]

I was being sarcastic. I think doubters will be like ˝huh maybe there is something to this˝ post election

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by nick is rulz

I was being sarcastic. I think doubters will be like ˝huh maybe there is something to this˝ post election

I know, but thought I would put that out there.

[FargoBison]

I'm hearing more about this two model theory, this time from Joe Trippi. He was saying both sides have different turnout models and both are scared the other might be right.

This why both candidates are all over the place, trying to hit as many swing states as possible.

[Ariadne22]

Well, Ohio might be tighter than those polls. Steve Kornacki was just on Rachel Maddow. He repeated what Chris Wallace said on FOX today. Absentee ballots for Dems were down this year by about 130k, GOP up. He said in 2008 Obama won Ohio by about 230,000 votes, take away the 130,000, leaves 100,000, less slant to GOP on election day - maybe Obama wins Ohio by 40,000 votes. Sort of what FOX was saying earlier today. Rachel didn't look too happy. I hope he's wrong, but what he is saying pretty much aligns with what Karl Rove has been saying. Ohio may be a squeaker for either candidate. With NH, CO and VA very iffy, it will be close. If Obama loses NH and Ohio, he must have VA and CO. FL will go to Romney barring a miracle. There will never be an honest count of the vote in FL.