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Because you can't..nothing can explain this except for a deliberate statistical BIAS meant to keep obama close.
And you can't seem to explain how almost Every. Single. Poll. is showing the exact same thing - an Obama win in the states that he needs to win to get to 270. It's all "statistically biased" because it's not showing what you want it to show.
That IS bias, dear.
You've been pulling this card since early summer. Can't wait til Wednesday so there will be no more polls for you to over analyze according to how you want them to look.
Well, Ohio might be tighter than those polls. Steve Kornacki was just on Rachel Maddow. He said absentee ballots for Dems were down this year by about 130k, GOP up. He said in 2008 Obama won Ohio by about 230,000 votes, take away the 130,000, leaves 100,000, less slant to GOP on election day - maybe Obama wins Ohio by 40,000 votes. Rachel didn't look too happy. I hope he's wrong, but what he is saying pretty much aligns with what Karl Rove has been saying. Ohio may be a squeaker.
I'm not sure where Steve gets his data, the data I have seen internally isn't matching up. We are way ahead in early voting.
Lots of smiles around the OFA offices the last two days. Our turf, we reach 98% of our GOTV universe in the first pass and they're halfway thru the second pass already. And NO MORE DATA ENTRY, all the focus is on canvassing.
Our local GOP counterparts have an uncoordinated effort (multiple teams for different candidates) covering the same turf independently. It also appears that they failed to identify their base. Widespread reports of their canvassers hitting a high percentage of 1's (strong Obama supporters) on our lists. Obama has been making "qualifying" contacts for years now, mittens database is a hodge podge mess.
And you can't seem to explain how almost Every. Single. Poll. is showing the exact same thing - an Obama win in the states that he needs to win to get to 270. It's all "statistically biased" because it's not showing what you want it to show.
That IS bias, dear.
You've been pulling this card since early summer. Can't wait til Wednesday so there will be no more polls for you to over analyze according to how you want them to look.
Tried to rep you repeatedly for that one, darn thing wouldn't allow it.
If it isn't the bogus poll bias posts it is their end of the world $5.00 a gallon gas is all Obama's fault posts. I cannot wait for the paid GOP trolls to get their pink slips Wednesday.
And you can't seem to explain how almost Every. Single. Poll. is showing the exact same thing - an Obama win in the states that he needs to win to get to 270. It's all "statistically biased" because it's not showing what you want it to show.
That IS bias, dear.
You've been pulling this card since early summer. Can't wait til Wednesday so there will be no more polls for you to over analyze according to how you want them to look.
And therein lies the problem for Republicans. Never mind the campaigns' internal polls which adjust for presumptions of turnout. There are dozens and dozens of public polls, that despite the claims of the ignorant to the contrary, DO NOT make presumptions about party affiliation and use time tested models to find likely voters - most of which favor Republican voters. And almost all of them point to a victory for Obama. There are no polls, for example, in the RCP over the last week or so that have Romney winning Ohio. The only argument that Sanrene and others CAN make is that all those polls are statistically biased. It's quite a stretch to believe that, but one borne of desperation at this point.
Will all the pollsters be embarrassed? Will inferential statistics be turned on its head? Will Romney prove all of them wrong? It simply is not very likely.
Lots of smiles around the OFA offices the last two days. Our turf, we reach 98% of our GOTV universe in the first pass and they're halfway thru the second pass already. And NO MORE DATA ENTRY, all the focus is on canvassing.
Our local GOP counterparts have an uncoordinated effort (multiple teams for different candidates) covering the same turf independently. It also appears that they failed to identify their base. Widespread reports of their canvassers hitting a high percentage of 1's (strong Obama supporters) on our lists. Obama has been making "qualifying" contacts for years now, mittens database is a hodge podge mess.
Well, this certainly more promising. Kornacki is usually pretty smart, but he did sound a bit like he was parroting what he saw on the news today, so perhaps he was winging it on Rachel tonight. That's too bad, because he's quite knowledgeable. However, he has been on the air 7 days straight. TheCycle did a show yesterday - and I'm not sure how hard hit he was by the hurricane. He looks tired and has a cold. Also, just saw Jonathan Alter on The Ed Show - Alter also voicing caution for Ohio at this point.
But, you are on the ground, so I'll go with you.
I can't imagine anyone with a brain voting for the lying Romney. What he'd do in office doesn't bear thinking about.
Well, this certainly more promising. Kornacki is usually pretty smart, but he did sound a bit like he was parroting what he saw on the news today, so perhaps he was winging it on Rachel tonight. That's too bad, because he's quite knowledgeable. However, he has been on the air 7 days straight. TheCycle did a show yesterday - and I'm not sure how hard hit he was by the hurricane. He looks tired and has a cold. Also, just saw Jonathan Alter on The Ed Show - Alter also voicing caution for Ohio at this point.
But, you are on the ground, so I'll go with you.
I can't imagine anyone with a brain voting for the lying Romney. What he'd do in office doesn't bear thinking about.
After mittens' lies about jeep this whole thing in Ohio changed overnite. Funny how ppl turn on a dime when they hear a blatant lie.
We are all beyond tired, too. 6 to 10 days for over a month without a break. We're bringing it home.
And therein lies the problem for Republicans. Never mind the campaigns' internal polls which adjust for presumptions of turnout. There are dozens and dozens of public polls, that despite the claims of the ignorant to the contrary, DO NOT make presumptions about party affiliation and use time tested models to find likely voters - most of which favor Republican voters. And almost all of them point to a victory for Obama. There are no polls, for example, in the RCP over the last week or so that have Romney winning Ohio. The only argument that Sanrene and others CAN make is that all those polls are statistically biased. It's quite a stretch to believe that, but one borne of desperation at this point.
Will all the pollsters be embarrassed? Will inferential statistics be turned on its head? Will Romney prove all of them wrong? It simply is not very likely.
This is a kind of a repeat of the last Presidential election. In that one, Sanrene didn't like what the polls were saying so she fell back on the stupid "Bradley Effect" theory that claimed that "White repondents to the polls didn't want to admit they weren't voting for a Black man so they simply lied and said they were going to" - but then would turn around and vote the other way - at least that was the THEORY, and Sanrene was into it BIG TIME.
Well, we all know how THAT turned out - surprise, surprise the respondents actually voted the way they SAID were planning on voting.
This time around Sanrene (once again) doesn't like what the polls show, so THIS TIME, it's that the "polls are all skewed - every single one of them". Give me a Break!
The polls show what the polls show. The ONLY thing in question is how many people actually turn out to VOTE. In that regard the GOP has a chance - IF Obama-leaning folks don't bother to vote.
And THAT we won't know for sure until Tuesday night.
After mittens' lies about jeep this whole thing in Ohio changed overnite. Funny how ppl turn on a dime when they hear a blatant lie.
Good. Glad people realize it. Among the Bain outsourcing (ha - they're closing the Sensata plant in Illinois and sending production to China), the 47% of Americans he can't worry about, the tax plan that doesn't exist and which cuts he can't identify, setting the clock back on women's rights 50 years, and then the whopper about Jeep production - I'd say he needs a sling to carry that nose around.
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzards27
We are all beyond tired, too. 6 to 10 days for over a month without a break. We're bringing it home.
Ohio early voter turnout seems to have been very strong
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Give me a Break!
