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Ohio early voter turnout seems to have been very strong
I think it's going to be really strong EVERYWHERE. Florida early turnout has been so strong, they're extending the time frame for voting. Here in Washington state, new voter registration is the most EVER.
While the GOP has been constantly harping on the fact that they (claim at least) have the edge in voter enthusiasm, I don't think the Democrats are exactly just "sitting on the sidelines" either. It looks to me like BOTH sides may be turning out in record numbers. We won't know for sure until we hear the final numbers of course, but there sure seems to be be a LOT of "action" this time around - and NOT just in the "Red" states, but also in "Purple" and solid "Blue" states as well.
Miami-Dade up to 8 hours - Rachel just said they closed the polls yesterday, or today rather, at 1 a.m. If I was in Florida, I'd be taking a chair on wheels, cooler on wheels w/water, lunch, snacks, and newspapers/books, and wait it out.
surprise of the night could be NC going to Obama. this guy seems to be convinced Obama will win it. heres his info below:
Some terms to understand before you read following data.
Total counties in NC: 100
Total Obama friendly counties: 35 ( Here Pres Obama won in 2008 finally vote tally )
Total R friendly counties: 65
===============================================
2012 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 2091583
2008 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 1994144
2008 total votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 3174651
2008 Obama Early voting advantage 64/36 ( extrapolated based on final win margins )
2008 Obama total voting advantage in 35 friendly counties 60/40 ( based on correct data )
2012 Obama early voting advantage 35 friendly counties 64.266/35.7 ( extrapolated based on 2008 final win margins )
----> Pres Obama running ahead of 2008 totals but this also means many R voters have voted early, Obama is winning on demographics 60/40, which means we are up additional 50k votes here.
2012 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636741
2008 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636625
---> Here no early votes change in 65 R friendly counties
2008 Total votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 1058437
Pres Obama finally tally in republican counties 39.5/60.5 ( this is based on final vote tally )
2000 Census population increase 21.4%
Population is divided into 15-25% and the ones where population decreased
Top Obama friendly 35 counties part of 15-25% increase = 18
Total 35 counties where population decreased = 0
Total R counties part of 15-25% increase = 14
Total R counties that lost population = 7
PRESIDENT OBAMA IS OUTPERFORMING 2008 NUMBERS AND WE WILL WIN NC ON TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT ULTIMATELY WE WILL BE ON TOP BY 25-75k VOTES
Yeah a minute percentage of them might vote Romney, so what?
Once again, those numbers:
557,177 for Democrats
480,843 for Republicans
There is no way that any more than a few hundred or maybe a thousand might vote Romney registered as a Democrat.
Arguing that "We're gonna win this!" because they're down by a smaller margin than McCain was 4 years ago is absolutely ridiculous. It doesnt matter if Obama carries Ohio by 7 points, or .00000000000000000000000000000000000007 points. If he wins Ohio by 17 votes, he still wins.
You need math lessons look up weighted averages and get back to us and um don't forget in affiliated voters
Well, Ohio might be tighter than those polls. Steve Kornacki was just on Rachel Maddow. He repeated what Chris Wallace said on FOX today. Absentee ballots for Dems were down this year by about 130k, GOP up. He said in 2008 Obama won Ohio by about 230,000 votes, take away the 130,000, leaves 100,000, less slant to GOP on election day - maybe Obama wins Ohio by 40,000 votes. Sort of what FOX was saying earlier today. Rachel didn't look too happy. I hope he's wrong, but what he is saying pretty much aligns with what Karl Rove has been saying. Ohio may be a squeaker for either candidate. With NH, CO and VA very iffy, it will be close. If Obama loses NH and Ohio, he must have VA and CO. FL will go to Romney barring a miracle. There will never be an honest count of the vote in FL.
He's not wrong that why I've been quietly confident about Ohio for weeks now. Still it will prove irrelevant when PA is called for Romney.
The problem is he assumes cross party voters offset each other doubtful. Look Whites in NC are breaking for Romney at around 65%. It's percentages like this that keep SC and GA red. No surprises in NC better shot for you guys in VA. That's actually the state I'm worried about for Romney.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtc08
surprise of the night could be NC going to Obama. this guy seems to be convinced Obama will win it. heres his info below:
Some terms to understand before you read following data.
Total counties in NC: 100
Total Obama friendly counties: 35 ( Here Pres Obama won in 2008 finally vote tally )
Total R friendly counties: 65
===============================================
2012 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 2091583
2008 Early votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 1994144
2008 total votes in Obama friendly 35 counties 3174651
2008 Obama Early voting advantage 64/36 ( extrapolated based on final win margins )
2008 Obama total voting advantage in 35 friendly counties 60/40 ( based on correct data )
2012 Obama early voting advantage 35 friendly counties 64.266/35.7 ( extrapolated based on 2008 final win margins )
----> Pres Obama running ahead of 2008 totals but this also means many R voters have voted early, Obama is winning on demographics 60/40, which means we are up additional 50k votes here.
2012 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636741
2008 Early votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 636625
---> Here no early votes change in 65 R friendly counties
2008 Total votes in Republican friendly 65 counties 1058437
Pres Obama finally tally in republican counties 39.5/60.5 ( this is based on final vote tally )
2000 Census population increase 21.4%
Population is divided into 15-25% and the ones where population decreased
Top Obama friendly 35 counties part of 15-25% increase = 18
Total 35 counties where population decreased = 0
Total R counties part of 15-25% increase = 14
Total R counties that lost population = 7
PRESIDENT OBAMA IS OUTPERFORMING 2008 NUMBERS AND WE WILL WIN NC ON TUESDAY.
IT WILL BE CLOSE BUT ULTIMATELY WE WILL BE ON TOP BY 25-75k VOTES
Yeah a minute percentage of them might vote Romney, so what?
Once again, those numbers:
557,177 for Democrats
480,843 for Republicans
There is no way that any more than a few hundred or maybe a thousand might vote Romney registered as a Democrat.
Arguing that "We're gonna win this!" because they're down by a smaller margin than McCain was 4 years ago is absolutely ridiculous. It doesnt matter if Obama carries Ohio by 7 points, or .00000000000000000000000000000000000007 points. If he wins Ohio by 17 votes, he still wins.
Even if these numbers were right, they still wouldn't be good for Republicans for another reason.
Apparently Party ID in Ohio is based on the last primary you voted in. If you've never voted there, you're identified as "non-affiliated." The 261,000 "swing voters" are not swing voters at all. If anything, they would represent new voters Obama has brought into the fold.
I was being sarcastic. I think doubters will be like ˝huh maybe there is something to this˝ post election
No such thing is going to happen Dems are underperforming Early voting/ GOP overperforming so +D11 turnout model PPP, CNN and Quinn are showing is wrong. When you factor in the fact that Dems themselves are admitting they may even lose seats in the House you quickly realize there is no Dem wave.
We are staring at a +D2 electorate at best
As an analyst Nate is making an astonishing basic mistake, he is building his model from top line results with some minor tweaks made at the macro level. When building a model you build it from the bottom up and isolate variables that can greatly impact the outcome like turnout.
I'm beginning to worry for the psyche of the Left on Wednesday Obamas defeat is going to come as a brutal shock to them because of folks like Silver. I hope he is fired very dangerous what he is doing.
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I think doubters will be like ˝huh maybe there is something to this˝ post election