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The thing that gives me comfort about Ohio is that not even Rasmussen can figure out a way to give Romney a lead there.
It's sort of like the really hot girl in high school that would never give you the time of day. And the only criticism you could come up with was, "Well, she's a...she's a...she eats her peas one at a time!"
These look good. All we need to do now is VOTE! I also encourage you to do GOTV tomorrow if you can. Let's keep our nose to the grindstone and put this thing away.
How come these polls aren't published on RCP, btw?
I've always been pretty optimistic that Florida would come around for us. I know so many people who are working so hard on the campaign down there. I'm glad to see that it looks like all of that hard work is starting to pay dividends. With Bill down there, particularly in the aftermath of Sandy (cueing up memories of Andrew), I thought Florida would be sure to turn blue at the last second.
Again, I also think the Bloomberg endorsement helped.
I really, really, really, really want Florida! That's the cherry on top.
These look good. All we need to do now is VOTE! I also encourage you to do GOTV tomorrow if you can. Let's keep our nose to the grindstone and put this thing away.
How come these polls aren't published on RCP, btw?
They are a conservative leaning site. Witness today. A new Gallup comes out that has Obama down by 1 versus 5 in the last Gallup. Rather than simply replace the Gallup which would have put Obama up by .7, they threw out all the older polls and only kept the last couple days which kept it at Obama +.4. RCP picks and chooses polls, usually publishing any piece of junk from the right while ignoring similar pieces of junk from the left. They put up a poll of a mere 400 FL voters with a 5 point MoE today because it had Romney up by 5.
These look good. All we need to do now is VOTE! I also encourage you to do GOTV tomorrow if you can. Let's keep our nose to the grindstone and put this thing away.
How come these polls aren't published on RCP, btw?
Yeah, the TURNOUT is going to be the deciding factor. It's become pretty evident - despite wingnut claims to the contrary - that Obama has a small but consistant lead in the polls in nearly all the "purple" states. The only REAL question is - will those leads in the polls equate with people actually taking the time and effort to vote. The perceived "enthusiam gap" between the Obama camp and the Romney camp is the crux of Rightwing hopes. Despite the fact that the polls show Obama with a much greater likelyhood of victory, they are clinging to the idea that - in spite of what the polls say - people just will not turn to vote for Obama the way they will for Romney (or more to the point AGAINST Obama).
Is this hope realistic?
Hard to say for sure.
I of course think that Obama supporters WILL turn out to vote - but of course, we won't know for sure until tomorrow night.
Yeah, the TURNOUT is going to be the deciding factor. It's become pretty evident - despite wingnut claims to the contrary - that Obama has a small but consistant lead in the polls in nearly all the "purple" states. The only REAL question is - will those leads in the polls equate with people actually taking the time and effort to vote. The perceived "enthusiam gap" between the Obama camp and the Romney camp is the crux of Rightwing hopes. Despite the fact that the polls show Obama with a much greater likelyhood of victory, they are clinging to the idea that - in spite of what the polls say - people just will not turn to vote for Obama the way they will for Romney (or more to the point AGAINST Obama).
Is this hope realistic?
Hard to say for sure.
I of course think that Obama supporters WILL turn out to vote - but of course, we won't know for sure until tomorrow night.
Ken
Hey, Ken!
I saw a poll today that puts approval for Referendum 74 at 55% to 40%!
I'm hoping that Inslee can pull out a win as well.
Yeah, the TURNOUT is going to be the deciding factor. It's become pretty evident - despite wingnut claims to the contrary - that Obama has a small but consistant lead in the polls in nearly all the "purple" states. The only REAL question is - will those leads in the polls equate with people actually taking the time and effort to vote. The perceived "enthusiam gap" between the Obama camp and the Romney camp is the crux of Rightwing hopes. Despite the fact that the polls show Obama with a much greater likelyhood of victory, they are clinging to the idea that - in spite of what the polls say - people just will not turn to vote for Obama the way they will for Romney (or more to the point AGAINST Obama).
Is this hope realistic?
Hard to say for sure.
I of course think that Obama supporters WILL turn out to vote - but of course, we won't know for sure until tomorrow night.
Ken
Well, my vote is already in the bank.
I think Obama supporters are enthusiastic. It's just that there's no "Rah, rah, rah" cheerleading this time around because our guy is already in office (and we know we're going to vote for him). It's kind of the same way that Roger Federer's 7th Wimbledon title is not quite as special as his first. Just because he already has 7 titles in the bag doesn't mean he's going to show up to Centre Court, play half-heartedly and then retire in the second set.
Friends and family in the DC suburbs said they waited 2-4 hours to vote. No Republican obstructionism. They said the lines were just that long. But they seemed to take it all in stride. They said a lot of people brought chairs, food, music and had a good time socializing while waiting to cast their vote.
Romney will have a 4 point popular vote and win this easily. Not even close, no matter how the media trys to spin it.
Republican voters are leading the way in early voting in Colorado. I think Romney will get the Indy voters 2 to 1, those that are truly independents and not single issue voterse.
I saw a poll today that puts approval for Referendum 74 at 55% to 40%!
I'm hoping that Inslee can pull out a win as well.
SSM looks very strong to pass in both Washington and Maine. It looks to be close in Maryland (I'm not counting on it, there -- I suspect a loss). And here in Minnesota I fully except a loss -- the only good news being in Minnesota, the amendment won't change current law whether it passes or not.
Anyway, combine this with the fact that the USSC is likely to deny cert in the Prop 8 case towards the end of the month (which means SSM will once again be legal in California), and November looks to be very good overall on the SSM issue!
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