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In sorry when did a 1pt margin within the ME constitute a lead?
Gravis is a right-leaning poll. So a +1 for Obama is really about a +3 or 4 for Obama (which is where the RCP average is).
Besides, it's not about one poll right now. It's about the aggregate. In the aggregate, Obama is actually outside of the margin of error (because the ME decreases with an increase in sample size). He has a RCP lead of +3.0 but the aggregate ME is about 1-1.5 percentage points. Don't you just love math?
Obama's RCP average in Ohio is actually larger than it was in 2008.
Big poll result now out: ABC/WaPo tracker. It is the one that has been giving me a bit of worry because it is a good poll with a huge sample and it has been lagging in the trend to Obama. No more! Obama up by 3.
That poll is wrong. It weighted the partisan split D +6 at 35/29/32 (D/R/I). Gallup has likely voters at R +1, and Rasmussen’s party ID rolling research of 15,000 or so respondents has R's at +5.8. The ABC/WaPo tracker is wrong because it's using the wrong weighting model.
I like how Gallup has corrected to +1 Romney from +5 to +7 Romney right before Sandy. Is it the Sandy effect? Or did Gallup tweak their LV model a bit?
That poll is wrong. It weighted the partisan split D +6 at 35/29/32 (D/R/I). Gallup has likely voters at R +1, and Rasmussen’s party ID rolling research of 15,000 or so respondents has R's at +5.8. The ABC/WaPo tracker is wrong because it's using the wrong weighting model.
I did not realize you know exactly who is going to vote, and who was not.
MofE implies the true mean is either +- a given figure with 95% confidence level. So you could take the same random sample and find Romney up 1.
Sigh this is what the WaPo is saying about their 3pt lead. Thanks for nothing Wiki scholar
Quote:
The difference between the candidates in the final weekend tally is right at the 2.5 percentage margin of sampling error for the final four-night sample of 2,345 likely voters. This makes Obama's being at plus three points over Romney an edge only by the slimmest of margins, well below conventional measures of statistical significance.
Gravis is a right-leaning poll. So a +1 for Obama is really about a +3 or 4 for Obama (which is where the RCP average is).
Besides, it's not about one poll right now. It's about the aggregate. In the aggregate, Obama is actually outside of the margin of error (because the ME decreases with an increase in sample size). He has a RCP lead of +3.0 but the aggregate ME is about 1-1.5 percentage points. Don't you just love math?
Obama's RCP average in Ohio is actually larger than it was in 2008.
Fair enough but most of the underlying polls are flawed, garbage in, garbage out. RCP may have to remove PPP, Marist and even Quinnipiac when the dust settles.
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