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Old 10-19-2012, 09:06 PM
 
Location: Everywhere you want to be
2,106 posts, read 3,062,627 times
Reputation: 1007

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Which electoral map to follow?? Real politics has a different number, huffington post is different and so is NY times?? so which electoral map do you look at it?

 
Old 10-19-2012, 09:13 PM
 
Location: Waltham, MA
235 posts, read 276,322 times
Reputation: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by chica_bella813 View Post
Which electoral map to follow?? Real politics has a different number, huffington post is different and so is NY times?? so which electoral map do you look at it?
I would suggest RCP
 
Old 10-19-2012, 09:15 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
14,317 posts, read 22,385,663 times
Reputation: 18436
Default 2012 polls are only meant to hold interest

Interesting these polls this year. One moment, President Obama is leading Romney is just about every poll. The next day, Romney is leading in an unlikely scenario which nobody can comprehend. What the hell is going on? I have a couple of theories.

1) The atrocious Citizens United decision by this pathetic right-leaning Supreme Court enabled rich special interests to flood money to support the GOP candidate. This means that more money is being injected into the campaigh than at any time in history, to engage in deceptive marketing, tilt polling data to favor the GOP candidate, and try to steal the election by limiting voting. Poll obviously are negatively influenced, which render than unreliable, ESPECIALLY if they have this race as close or Romney being ahead.

2) GOP money is affecting the polling data, skewing it in favor of the GOP candidate.

3) It is clear that pollsters are solely intent on keeping interest high in their polls. A poll which reflects the true state of this race (Obama winning handily) would be uninteresting. People would lose interest if President Obama is winning handily. So pollsters have to keep the race close, show Romney, or even winning. This keeps interest high, which helps the media.

This race is NOT as close as the polls show. Romney stinks as bad as always. President Obama is comfortably ahead of Romney. There are no battleground states. WI, MI, OH, PA, CO, NV, NC, VA will all go for the President. Game over.
 
Old 10-19-2012, 10:52 PM
 
27,624 posts, read 21,125,541 times
Reputation: 11095
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_Lexus View Post
Interesting these polls this year. One moment, President Obama is leading Romney is just about every poll. The next day, Romney is leading in an unlikely scenario which nobody can comprehend. What the hell is going on? I have a couple of theories.

1) The atrocious Citizens United decision by this pathetic right-leaning Supreme Court enabled rich special interests to flood money to support the GOP candidate. This means that more money is being injected into the campaigh than at any time in history, to engage in deceptive marketing, tilt polling data to favor the GOP candidate, and try to steal the election by limiting voting. Poll obviously are negatively influenced, which render than unreliable, ESPECIALLY if they have this race as close or Romney being ahead.

2) GOP money is affecting the polling data, skewing it in favor of the GOP candidate.

3) It is clear that pollsters are solely intent on keeping interest high in their polls. A poll which reflects the true state of this race (Obama winning handily) would be uninteresting. People would lose interest if President Obama is winning handily. So pollsters have to keep the race close, show Romney, or even winning. This keeps interest high, which helps the media.

This race is NOT as close as the polls show. Romney stinks as bad as always. President Obama is comfortably ahead of Romney. There are no battleground states. WI, MI, OH, PA, CO, NV, NC, VA will all go for the President. Game over.
I agree with this. They have to keep it interesting or people will just tune out. This is starting to get monotonous too though.
 
Old 10-19-2012, 11:23 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,970,287 times
Reputation: 7315
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Is this before or after the 2010 election, where republicans SWEPT the state?

DUH! Both 2010 and 2008 were anomolies.
 
Old 10-19-2012, 11:55 PM
 
27,141 posts, read 15,318,187 times
Reputation: 12071
Yep, '08 was mis-guided.
'10 was purposeful and full of intent to accomplish a goal, it succeded too, historically as a matter of fact.
 
Old 10-20-2012, 06:37 AM
 
Location: On the border of off the grid
3,179 posts, read 3,166,021 times
Reputation: 863
Quote:
Originally Posted by chica_bella813 View Post
Uh being up by 2.5 pts is NOT considered a heavy trend toward Romney. I will tell you this. I am in Fla, in your rural areas, like country hick areas, its all Romney Ryan. When you go to the metropolitian areas like Orlando, Tampa, Miami, Jacksonville, its all Obama/Biden. South Fla right now is close, but just watch the I-4 corridor.

Ironically the Tampa Tribune endorsed Obama today and the Republican convention was hosted in Tampa. Orlando Sentinel endorsed Romney today. So just knowing that info alone tells me how tight this race will be in Fla. Romney's saving grace in Fla is he is white and has a nice family. But the seniors are confused with his flip flopping, then you have the elderly that feel Obama is a communist.

Then you have your retirees in the Metro areas that are very much Obama supporters. The entire pandhandle will be red for Romney Ryan--very very racist in those areas, anywhere south of ocala will be Obama territory, so Fla will be interesting.

I feel Obama will get fla based on what I see. I hear people say they are voting for Romney because he is white and they feel comfortable with that, but they honestly don't trust him. So its sad to see that race does play heavily in voting here in Fla.

Obama's saving grace is college kids, women, latinos, and seniors...so we shall see....shall be interesting.
Funny how you completely over-look the very large Jewish vote in Florida:



p.s. - that's in W. Palm Beach county, definitely south of Ocala.
 
Old 10-20-2012, 06:39 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,803 posts, read 41,013,481 times
Reputation: 62204
Quote:
Originally Posted by wnewberry22 View Post
I grew up in southwest VA near the Tennessee border and once you crossed I64 on I81 headed north it becomes totally different. The capital of the south is losing it's roots and the boswash corridor is extending further into the state.
The feds in NOVA will vote Democrat because they vote their pay raises BUT I don't think the defense contractors will and there are a lot of them in Virginia.

"The sequester threatens to hollow out the military, a huge concern for hundreds of thousands of retired, active-duty military and civilian personnel in the Hampton Roads area in the southern part of the state. Virginia's northern suburbs will meanwhile bear the brunt of the expected 200,000 cuts in defense-contractor and government jobs. Polls show Virginia voters are well aware of the sequester and consider it of major concern. "

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...703728302.html
 
Old 10-20-2012, 06:49 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,954,468 times
Reputation: 7458
bobtn is concerned Romney might win VA.
 
Old 10-20-2012, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Everywhere you want to be
2,106 posts, read 3,062,627 times
Reputation: 1007
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_Lexus View Post
Interesting these polls this year. One moment, President Obama is leading Romney is just about every poll. The next day, Romney is leading in an unlikely scenario which nobody can comprehend. What the hell is going on? I have a couple of theories.

1) The atrocious Citizens United decision by this pathetic right-leaning Supreme Court enabled rich special interests to flood money to support the GOP candidate. This means that more money is being injected into the campaigh than at any time in history, to engage in deceptive marketing, tilt polling data to favor the GOP candidate, and try to steal the election by limiting voting. Poll obviously are negatively influenced, which render than unreliable, ESPECIALLY if they have this race as close or Romney being ahead.

2) GOP money is affecting the polling data, skewing it in favor of the GOP candidate.

3) It is clear that pollsters are solely intent on keeping interest high in their polls. A poll which reflects the true state of this race (Obama winning handily) would be uninteresting. People would lose interest if President Obama is winning handily. So pollsters have to keep the race close, show Romney, or even winning. This keeps interest high, which helps the media.

This race is NOT as close as the polls show. Romney stinks as bad as always. President Obama is comfortably ahead of Romney. There are no battleground states. WI, MI, OH, PA, CO, NV, NC, VA will all go for the President. Game over.
How do pollsters keep it close?? So you think they are releasing false info?? What I dont understand is the President is clearly up in the electoral map in Nytimes and Huffington Post, they have the President at 277. Real Clear Politics and Rasmusseun have it Obama 201 and Romney 206. So I dont understand that? I don't see much enthusiasm for either one in my area. Some saturday mornings on the corner you will see a group of people with the American flag holding Romney/Ryan posters. Maybe 10 if that of them. They don't stay long, i think because they don't get that much support from the people driving by
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