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Gallup was the only outlier in the most recent round of polling. All the rest have much narrower margins. It's the aggregate that's always the most accurate, and by that measure, it's very close to being a dead even race right now.
Anything over 5 points is nothing but a screwy poll or wishful thinking on either side.
I'd make that 3 points, maybe even 2. The national number is going to be very close.
Obama is losing the favorability battle, which has been a key strength for him throughout the campaign. His favorable-to-unfavorable rating sits underwater at 46-50.
Romney's favorable rating, on the other hand, is a positive 49-45.
Romney leads the self-identified Independent vote by an astounding 16 points. Among this crucial group, Obama's approval-to-disapproval is 33-60, and Romney's favorability is 53-37.
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