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When 11 out of 15 polls show Obama with a 3 to 5 point advantage in Ohio, and a 2 point advantage in Iowa and Wisconsin, I'd say he has a better chance of winning.
The constant "national poll" arguments that are being made ignore the fact that, national votes don't mean anything.
And I have the staunch feeling you'll hear out of Republicans, if Romney loses, that Obama somehow stole the election and isn't the ligitimate President, if he wins the electoral vote, and Romney wins the popular.
AS I said in the other thread a 3 to 5 spread in polls mean nothing when they are ignoring that the 20% spread Democrats had on early votes 4 years ago is only 7% this year, and that if they all vote along party lines Obama has lost his lead that he had 4 years ago. Right now it is a true tossup and if the rest of voting follows what happened in 2008, then Obama loses in Ohio.
AS I said in the other thread a 3 to 5 spread in polls mean nothing when they are ignoring that the 20% spread Democrats had on early votes 4 years ago is only 7% this year, and that if they all vote along party lines Obama has lost his lead that he had 4 years ago. Right now it is a true tossup and if the rest of voting follows what happened in 2008, then Obama loses in Ohio.
And as I said in the other thread, taking into account the early vote, Romney will have to do much better then 51/49 on election day in Ohio.
So, also as I said in the other thread, we'll find out in just over a week which numbers are right or wrong.
The difference between me and you (and others in this thread), is that y'all seem to be calling the election now. I keep saying, I'm giving it 60/40 odds for Obama.
He is still 2 points down in Ohio and cannot win the presidency without Ohio. I foresee Republicans bitching about one of the last few remnants of federalism after this election.
He can pick up OH or WI as both are tied and either would put him over the top, bit that assumes Obama stops losing ground and the undecideds break evenly.
History has shown that undecided voters almost always break for the challenger since they aren't really undecided as much as they are dissatisfied with the incumbent and unsure about a lesser known challenger.
This is the reason Romney is only now moving ahead in the polls and why he will continue to do so.
The voters have seen him, he's not a three-headed monster and Obama is a tested and verified loser.
And as I said in the other thread, taking into account the early vote, Romney will have to do much better then 51/49 on election day in Ohio.
So, also as I said in the other thread, we'll find out in just over a week which numbers are right or wrong.
The difference between me and you (and others in this thread), is that y'all seem to be calling the election now. I keep saying, I'm giving it 60/40 odds for Obama.
Where did I ever call it for Romney? I responded to that post in the Silver thread, and am not going to do it again here as I doubt people want to keep reading the same thing over and over again, but there is proof there that shows that Romney is well ahead of where McCain was 4 years ago, while Obama is behind where he was 4 years ago, and Obama looks to be down 250,000 of the 260,000 votes he won ohio by in 2004, if the trend stays the same Romney wins Ohio, it is simple math.
Obama won by 10 million votes and right was still talking as ACORN and voter fraud gave him the election. The 2000 race was decided by 537 votes in state where the person who could stop or start a recount was someone that was one of the candidates campaign managers in that state...
This is hilarious. It's like the right wing nutjobs have their heads so far up their own back sides they believe their own bs. Everything is showing an Obama victory of ~300 electoral votes, just total up the polls by state as 538 has already done. Spin all you want but that fact won't change no matter how deep you go into denial.
He is still 2 points down in Ohio and cannot win the presidency without Ohio. I foresee Republicans bitching about one of the last few remnants of federalism after this election.
When 11 out of 15 polls show Obama with a 3 to 5 point advantage in Ohio, and a 2 point advantage in Iowa and Wisconsin, I'd say he has a better chance of winning.
The constant "national poll" arguments that are being made ignore the fact that, national votes don't mean anything.
And I have the staunch feeling you'll hear out of Republicans, if Romney loses, that Obama somehow stole the election and isn't the ligitimate President, if he wins the electoral vote, and Romney wins the popular.
Memphis: I thought you said that polls don't mean squat. So, why are you using polls as your basis for arguing a point?
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