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Old 11-03-2012, 04:02 PM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
10,581 posts, read 8,793,157 times
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A pretty good explanation of the odd phenomenon where so many polls assume the same numbers of Dems and Republicans will vote in 2012, as voted in 2008 (far more Dems than Republicans).

And what will happen if they vote, instead, the way they did in 2010 (more Republicans than Dems).

Which do YOU think is more likely?

--------------------------------------------------------

Parsing the Polls - Michael G. Franc - National Review Online#

Parsing the Polls
If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party.

By Michael G. Franc
November 3, 2012 12:00 A.M.

(snip)

Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this year’s voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:

The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

If anything, Gallup understates the case. In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a decisive ten-point advantage in partisan affiliation, 39 percent to 29 percent. When undecided voters were pushed to choose a party, the Democrats’ edge grew by another two points, to 54 percent to 42 percent. Yet in the Gallup polls conducted since October 1, the two parties have pulled even, with Republicans actually ahead by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 36 percent to 35 percent. After being pushed to choose a party, likely voters give the Republicans a further boost, resulting in an overall three-point advantage of 49 percent to 46 percent.

(snip)

Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallup’s finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points. Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen?
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:07 PM
 
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If Obama wins Ohio and little ole N.H., it's going to be a long night for Romney. Romney would have to sweep almost every swing state, which is extremely unlikely
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:14 PM
 
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And if Gallup is wrong, it will be a long night for Gallup's reputation as an accurate poll.
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:15 PM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frugality View Post
If Obama wins Ohio and little ole N.H., it's going to be a long night for Romney. Romney would have to sweep almost every swing state, which is extremely unlikely
Did you even read the OP?

No one has ever lost the Electoral College after winning the popular vote by 5% or more as Gallup etc. describe here.
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:15 PM
 
2,548 posts, read 1,957,967 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenfriedbananas View Post
And if Gallup is wrong, it will be a long night for Gallup's reputation as an accurate poll.
I haven't see much of Gallups recent polls concerning Ohio, N.H., or Virginia. If anyone has a link I'd like to see it. Popular national vote means nothing, it's about electoral votes
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:18 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Little-Acorn View Post
Did you even read the OP?

No one has ever lost the Electoral College after winning the popular vote by 5% or more as Gallup etc. describe here.
Gallup has Obama leading Romney with registered voters, and registered voters determine the election, unless Republicans are planning to win with unregistered voters
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:18 PM
 
4,741 posts, read 3,830,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frugality View Post
If Obama wins Ohio and little ole N.H., it's going to be a long night for Romney. Romney would have to sweep almost every swing state, which is extremely unlikely
If Obama wins Ohio, it's over. Period. There's nothing else to think about. Romney must have Ohio. Romney essentially needs a complete sweep of GOP strongholds and swing states in the east to pull this off.

Now, if Obama somehow squanders PA, then it's over for Obama. I don't think that will happen, despite the late surge by Romney, because as I've said with regard to other states, the voting patterns of 2000 and 2004 are probably going to hold up for the most part, but I think that, as it is with every election cycle, there will be a twist here or there that decides the race. I think the twist that could work in Romney's favor would be a rebellious NH. I think it's unlikely, but it could happen. I think Colorado and Nevada are less in play.

I also think that after this election's over, there will be a major warning sign for republicans coming from the state of Arizona. I do see the GOP taking that state this time, but I suspect that the results will be closer than the republicans want, and it might be just enough to convince democrats to dump massive resources into that state for the 2014 cycle and the next statewide cycle.
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:21 PM
 
2,548 posts, read 1,957,967 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenfriedbananas View Post
If Obama wins Ohio, it's over. Period. There's nothing else to think about. Romney must have Ohio. Romney essentially needs a complete sweep of GOP strongholds and swing states in the east to pull this off.

Now, if Obama somehow squanders PA, then it's over for Obama. I don't think that will happen, despite the late surge by Romney, because as I've said with regard to other states, the voting patterns of 2000 and 2004 are probably going to hold up for the most part, but I think that, as it is with every election cycle, there will be a twist here or there that decides the race. I think the twist that could work in Romney's favor would be a rebellious NH. I think it's unlikely, but it could happen. I think Colorado and Nevada are less in play.

I also think that after this election's over, there will be a major warning sign for republicans coming from the state of Arizona. I do see the GOP taking that state this time, but I suspect that the results will be closer than the republicans want, and it might be just enough to convince democrats to dump massive resources into that state for the 2014 cycle and the next statewide cycle.
I think Romney will barely win Arizona. I'm Hispanic and I've heard many Hispanics from Arizona say that because of Arizona's show me your papers law and Sheriff Joe, Hispanics are planning to come out in full force and vote against the GOP. I also know that many southern states like North Carolina and Georgia have been getting an influx of Hispanics. I have relatives who are conservative who are voting for Obama.
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:24 PM
 
Location: US
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Keep dreaming Republicans! Obama 303 electoral points
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Old 11-03-2012, 04:24 PM
 
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Humm! So there might be more R's than D's voting this time? But I was told most were D's. I am showing my shocked face right now!
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