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If Obama wins Virginia, Romney could win Florida, Ohio and Colorado and still come up short. The electoral results would be:
Obama 276
Romney 262
In that scenario, Romney would have to take both Iowa & Nevada or just Wisconsin out of Obama's column. But Obama has decent leads in those states. There are at least two paths for Obama without Ohio and Florida. Obama clearly has more paths than Romney so it may or may not come to Ohio. With all the talk about how close the national polls are, Romney has a steeper hill to climb in the electoral math. Obama leads in all battleground states except for one. Obama just needs to win a few of them to get re-elected.
If Obama wins Virginia early in the night, the election is over
It looks to me like there are 4 east coast states that we should be paying attention to this evening: FL, NC, VA and NH. All are considered toss-ups, but if Obama wins any of the four, it's pretty much over early tonight.
Conventional wisdom says Romney needs to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio. But with the current swing states in play, he could still win after losing any one of those.
Yes he can still win without Virginia.
Yes he can win without Ohio.
Yes he can even win without Florida.
If he loses three of those, then it's over. If he loses two of them, he probably loses.
I have Romney winning with 271 electoral college votes to 267 for Obama.
Romney loses Ohio but wins FL, NC, CO, NH, WI, and VA.
Did you figure in that romney will lose in Missouri?
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If Obama wins Virginia early in the night, the election is over
