Now 92% chance that Obama wins. (votes, polls, Barack Obama, election)
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He is not using at crystal ball. He is using statistical analysis. I don't think it will be close at all.
You are right - it's not a crystal ball, it's statistical analysis.
The only question is - "How good is the analysis?"
We'll know that by tonight (hopefully).
You are right - it's not a crystal ball, it's statistical analysis.
The only question is - "How good is the analysis?"
We'll know that by tonight (hopefully).
If you believe that Politico map, Romney needs 34 more to get a tie.
How can he get 34 more?
He'd have to win at least 3 of these states where he is behind.
Without twelve toss up states (MN, NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, AND FL), Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are tied at 191 each. I predict Mr. Romney will win FL (29), NC (15), VA (13), NH (4), OH (18), IA (6), CO (9) and Mr. Obama will get MN (10), NV (6), WI (10), MI (16), PA (20). This brings Mr. Romney to 285 Electoral College votes and Mr. Obama to 253. These are just my base predictions and I still think several of these states are too close to call. For example, while I put them in Mr. Obama's column, I still believe NV, WI, and PA are in play and very winnable for Mr. Romney. If crowds at his recent stops in these states are any indication of his supporters' enthusiasm, Mr. Romney will likely be able to claim victory in these states as well.
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