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As you all know we are seeing Congressional midterms coming up.
Congressional opinion polling is pretty low, too....for both the GOP and Dems (but more for the GOP). This will rise of course as we move on in time, but perhaps an indication of how incumbents will fare in the upcoming Congressional elections.
A few things might happen going forward
1) TP/Conservo challenge to the GOP congresscritters/senators who voted Aye, via the primary process
2) Midterms as a referendum on Congressional governance (vs Obama's governance).
In the past, after controversial things get passed Congress turned over. This happened twice in the past 25 years or so....GOP takeover of Congress after the defeat of Clintons health care plan, Dem takeover of Congress due to inept Bush governance, and GOP takeover due to TP activism during the Obama era.
So, given the magnitude of this crisis it seems another shakeup is in order. Howeve, in the past three turnovers, the shakeup was in reaction to the Executive...things the President was doing....this time the unfavorables are pointing more to the GOP, or a faction within the GOP.
Which is sort of uncharted territory. Midterms are usually a referendum of sorts on the party who holds the Presidency. In this case it might not be.
My gut feeling is there won't be a turnover...or there will be trading seats...some Dems lose, some GOP lose, and its a wash, with one or the other party showing a net gain, but not enough for the Dems (if they gain) to change the House majority. Anger & memory of the current crisis will fade...so status quo election....
I also think the TP/Conservo anger right now won't turn into a serious primary challenge to the GOPers who compromised with the Dems.
Still...going to be interesting to see this midterm play out....setting the stage for the "big enchilada" 2016 prez election.
I am actually just waiting on more TP candidates to challenge the traitors...my senator is gonna get thrown out on her butt come November. By a TP candidate at that.
You heard it here first. The Tea Party districts are going to double down on the crazy. One of the striking characteristics of the far right posters here is how immune they are from reality.
Or maybe not. Perhaps the voters there are a bit more sensible. We'll just have to see.
My feeling is what you read on this board is the more vocal/xtreme position.
A good question is how many districts are in play. But the first round in this 2-round fight..the primaries..will be key. To see how many "traitors" the TP knocks off (& there'll be spin around that, too, come election night).
Only in the conservative alternative reality could a "traitor" be someone who opened the government and avoided a devastating debt default.
I'm so tired of listening to their drivel.
My instincts tell me that the Senate will stay Democratic because the tea party has ruined the chances of the GOP taking that chamber and the House is up for grabs. Either way, this will set up a Hillary campaign very nicely and her chances of winning are better now than they were prior to the government shutdown.
I guess to sum things up, the tea party has been a great asset for the Democratic Party.
The GOP primary fight in 2016 should get interesting, too. But for now the bellwether will be the midterms. As I said in the thread header they usually are referendum on the President's party and the President's governance.
However the politics/media this time around might indicate a different sort of thing....since the hi-viz stuff was/is around the GOP....making them the issue...or more accuratley....Congress as a whole...the news was about internal negotiations in the Senate and the House GOP back-&-forth. Obama was actually somewhat distant.
Seats in play. Actually this number might change depending on the primary results. IF the TP is sucessful in ousting incumbent GOP there will be more seats in play.
My prediciton: Net pickup will be to the Dems in the House. By how much? Dunnoh. Won't be enough for the Dems to take the House, though. Senate will probably stay Dem, though.
I will be on the losing end because neither of my leaders will get my vote. I think the {R}s will hold onto the House barely. The race I am watching is the McConnell one where he is trying to win re election. It would make my day if the voters give him the boot, I wonder if there has been a majority leader that was not re elected?
I predict an anti-incumbent wave, and as a result, the Democrats will gain. because there are more incumbent Republicans in marginal Districts than incumbent Democrats in marginal districts.
It was better for the Republicans to get it all out of their system now than next year.
There will be no more shenanigans again until after the election. The party finally understands the folly of diddling around with the budget, and there is still plenty of stuff awaiting passage.
If the conservatives pass the Farm bill, that alone will stem a lot of their bleeding, especially if the food assistance programs remain intact. That's been the big hangup, and for months, it has made the Republicans look like they are happy to let poor folks starve.
Passing a couple of other similar bills will help them regain some of the approval they lost over the past few weeks, and will give the voters time to forget the teabag foolishness, if the teabaggers will shut up. Americans have very short political memories.
But shutting the teabaggers up may present big problems in itself. When those guys shoot themselves in the foot, the first thing they do is reload. I expect their discipline will come from Heritage Action and the other big money outfits rather than from the party leadership. Money will talk louder than ever next year for a lot of GOP incumbents, and they'll need every buck they can get.
I will be on the losing end because neither of my leaders will get my vote. I think the {R}s will hold onto the House barely. The race I am watching is the McConnell one where he is trying to win re election. It would make my day if the voters give him the boot, I wonder if there has been a majority leader that was not re elected?
If McConnell wins the primary he will win again, but that is a big IF. As for what is going to happen in 2014, a lot will depend on whether the Obamcare mess can get cleared up. I don't think we are going to see another shutdown which will help the Republican, especially if the Obamacare fiasco doesn't work out. of course this is only my opinion and isn't based on anything particular. Right now, I would love to see the GOP let Obamacare fail by itself, but regardless, shutting down the government again, would spell disaster.
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