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Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper ties former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger, among women and trails among all likely voters 50 - 40 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess and Green Party candidate Harry Hempy each have 3 percent.
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"Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is behind the challenger on the key qualities voters want in a leader: honesty, caring and leadership," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll."Pundits were predicting that Gov. Hickenlooper faced a close race for reelection. Instead, he's got a mad dash to make up a double-digit deficit. The Democrat does not get the traditional strong support from women to offset Bob Beauprez's army of support from men."
Coloradan's like their guns. They recalled three elected leaders over gun restrictions....Hickenlooper is next via the ballot box.
could be very true: states with people who love to hunt, love their guns and you better not be in favor of gun control. My cousin, who is a Democrat, pretty liberal but is an retired forest ranger, is voting for Beauprez. It might be one of the few times, in his 50 plus years of voting he has voted for anything other than a Democrat.
Location: SF Bay Area (recent MN transplant...go gophers)
148 posts, read 149,997 times
Reputation: 368
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Originally Posted by Smash255
Shows results different from everything else out.
Other recent polls on this race show Hickenlooper up 2, up 2 down 1, up 4 and a tie
Some rationality, thank you.
This poll is a severe outlier. Like, very severe. Probably the second most severe outlier I've seen so far in 2014, after that one that had Walker up by 16. As it turns out, there was a thread on that poll on this forum too, and I responded to it here: https://www.city-data.com/forum/elect...l#post35028810
And, turns out that poll was pretty much wrong, as no other survey for that race has been within 12 points of that result.
So, instead of just seeing a poll that dramatically favors your side and running with it like Mike Alstott, let's pay attention to why the Quinn. poll is so off course. Luckily, Quinn. (who, just like St. Norberts in Wisconsin, I have a skeptical fondness for) created a PDF that explains their information. Hopefully, like St. Norbert's/WPR's aforementioned "Walker Outlier" poll, they included their demographic information, so that we can see if theirs involves some skewed or interesting political demographics.
...
...well, s**t, turns out they didn't. They didn't post any demographic information at all, actually. Jerks
Well, plan B then: this is a waiting game. If other polls begin to either match or sway towards Quinn.'s 10 point advantage for Beauprez, then this outlier will make a bit more sense, and the Democrats should start freaking out a bit. However, like Smash pointed out, other recent surveys are staying in a 4-point area. Because nothing massive has happened in the 2-3 days between the Quinn. polls and the non-outlier polls, such as video surfacing of Gov. Hickenlooper dropkicking a koala or something, we should be skeptical over something that swings so quickly. Sometimes outliers are a sign of a noticeable shift, but most of the time they're just some wonky mistakes in demographics or question framing.
TL;DR version: Trace, if you keep posting threads about skewed and weird outlier polls, I will play Captain Buzzkill. Don't test me, man, I'm one of those nerds who studies this stuff for fun.
could be very true: states with people who love to hunt, love their guns and you better not be in favor of gun control. My cousin, who is a Democrat, pretty liberal but is an retired forest ranger, is voting for Beauprez. It might be one of the few times, in his 50 plus years of voting he has voted for anything other than a Democrat.
Hunting is Big Business for Colorado - and important part of their economy.
Thing is - Politics in Colorado are mainly controlled in the Denver/Boulder area.
I read the poll, it sounds a little hinky - the main issue is "Economy/Jobs", but Immigration wasn't even one of the choices. That makes no sense, because it is an issue in Colorado. Hick is (or was) a popular Politician in Colorado, well likes. The bad news for him was that the entire Legislature went Democratic in 2012 and he allowed them (thru lack of VETO) to push through a lot of "agenda" items that a huge part of the State did not agree with.
For him to lose .... it's going to take a massive "get out the vote" campaign outside of the Denver area.
It could happen - the recall shows that.
Location: SF Bay Area (recent MN transplant...go gophers)
148 posts, read 149,997 times
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Originally Posted by BentBow
*cough* Eric Cantor *cough*
As seen... Anything can happen.
I don't think you get what I'm saying. Yes, anything can happen. Cantor in 2014. Oberstar in 2010. To a lesser extent, Reid in 2010, who was down by 3 to Angle on RCP until suddenly he won by 5.5 in the actual election. But just because anything can happen doesn't mean it will happen. Just because one poll said Walker was up by 16 didn't mean he was actually up by 16. Just because Cantor got ballpunched in the primary didn't mean other incumbents will suffer in the primaries as well...and, historically speaking, they didn't. And, unless there was a stark demographic shift in Colorado voters that occurred over the past week that I'm unaware of, just because one poll shows Gov. Hickenlooper down by 10 doesn't mean he's actually down by 10. Anything can happen, but context and using discretion (lookin' at you, OP) tells us what probably will happen.
And yeah, sure, "only one poll matters." But the point here is to predict. Politics is like weather...you can't know what hour it's going to rain, but you can look at radar and climate data and take a good, solid guess. And some guesses are better than others (Nate Silver vs. Dean Chambers, Sam Wang vs. Dick Morris) because of the methodology they use. This is why I keep on saying "skeptical" instead of "flat out wrong," or something firm like
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Hickenlooper is next
or
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if Hickenlooper really is only tied with Beauprez among female voters,
then the race is over. Beauprez is the next governor.
P.S. I feel like "Anything Can Happen" is an excuse, because I've personally used it. Russ Feingold was losing to Ron Johnson in 2010 at a rate of 4-8 points per poll, and because I didn't want to believe it, I just thought to myself "Hey, anything can happen, maybe the polls are wrong and Feingold will win." They weren't wrong. I refuse to use that excuse again. I refuse to assume that my outlier will be the correct outlier, because that's just asking to get burnt.
Any chance of Beauprez with female voters ended last night. Said the IUD pill was an "abortifacient" (which medical groups quickly condemned) and promised to end the teen contraception program which has reduced teen pregnancy up to 40 percent in some counties.
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