Solving the GOP's Demographic/Electoral Challenges (voting, Palestinian, illegal, democratic)
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I think HRC will win in 2016, but that will in turn engender a GOP gain in 2018 and a HRC win in 2020 will but the GOP into vetoproof land by 2022, just based on the continual polarization of the electorate.
The GOP Senators have a numbers game problem in 2016, but even with that 538 is projecting a 51-49 GOP split in 2016, then the Dems have a numbers problem in 2018 even worse than 2014. We will see.
Dems forgetting their rural roots: You should see the liberal demands in CA right now today that the Dems hit farmers harder on water rationing that the city dwellers. They have some legit stats to back up their position, but that will serve to polarize CA even more.
As for CA water, I am in far east county San Diego, got 4 wells drawing off of 4 completely different aquifers and one just tested at around 200 gal/min, and I did not even bother testing the others. I'm drafting designs for a 100K Gal underground tank, give me a perpetual 2 mo supply.
In these times anything is possible.
Right now I also think Hillary will win, but I think she could be a one-termer.
America has been polarized before many times. Trying to predict the political future, though, is like forecasting the weather; the further out a forecast grows, the less reliable the prediction becomes.
All either of us know for sure is that the 21st century is different from the last decades of the 20th. As I see it, there are a lot of chickens that are now coming home to roost from eggs that were laid 30 years ago or less, and back then, none of what's happening right now was even a possibility then.
And right now, those chickens are hatching chickens our kids are going to have to take care of when they come home to roost. No matter what, someone will get angry or happy or frustrated or content or pessimistic or optimistic. That's how we do things.
The key is not the candidates; its the base, wutitiz. 95% of 2012 GOP primary voters were white. In a year where 72% of November voters were white. It will never mirror the nation, but it must get far more diverse.
The candidates are running for the chance to lead; that's why we call them leaders. Candidates lead, base follows.
Eventually we will reach a point where political ideology is not a function of skin tone, which should be the goal--don't you agree?
Well, what do you think the Republicans could say or do to get the minority votes to all switch over to their side?
Since they are going to have to bring them over sooner or later anyhow, or face extinction, shouldn't it be done sooner rather than later?
He and others like him think that the GOP should promise amnesty for illegal aliens to Hispanics to gain their vote. As for blacks just as long as the Democrats keep telling them that the GOP is racist towards them there is nothing they can do to change their minds.
Millenials' average age is 35. They may have been kids when Bill was in office, but they know about his wife. What they care about is equal rights, more jobs, and no more wars of empire. The outrage that just swamped Indiana like a tsunami should be a very clear warning to the Republican party. If the Republicans don't change their ways very soon, they'll be floating out to sea with the wreckage one more time.
Millennials on average aren't 35, that is an upper bound of you go by the most generous size of the cohort. I've seen it where the oldest they could be is 31 too (born in 1984.) The point is, the average is likely 24 or 25 which makes me older than the average millennial.
You are right about what millennial values are and so long as Republicans don't try and reach out to them like Rand Paul did, they won't vote for them. I feel this may cause the end of the GOP along with the minorities as more and more millennials can and do vote regularly. Right now though, Republicans are on life support nationally.
A Comprehensive Immigration Reform plan with a long-term possible pathway to citizenship would help. Latinos are the fastest growing demographic group in America.
Even bigger, they need to formally separate from fringe groups. There should be no GOP Tea Party debates. If the TP wishes to have debates, it should not be under the official umbrella of the true party. The RWNJ base is not welcoming of diversity, and it isn't big enough to get 270 electoral votes,so the GOP is dumb clinging to this sinking boat. Unlike non-national races, POTUS cannot be won via gerrymandering. It requires a big tent.
The Senate races aren't gerrymandered either. Only house and local legislator races are.
"The GOP can't seem to grasp the reality of the situation. When your policies are racially discriminatory as a matter of course, you can't fool the minority groups (or women) you have disdain for by PRETENDING to be receptive to their needs just for the election."
I think the dynamic is more subtle than overt racial discrimination -- I'm unaware of any policies currently championed by the GOP that fit that bill (voter ID comes closest). Rather, my theory is that a significant number of working-class whites support a party ostensibly committed to redistributing wealth upward under the assumption that a smaller government means less public funds spent on undeserving minorities. Divorced of that concern (say, in the overwhelmingly white parts of the North), working-class whites gravitate toward class-based politics, and supply-side economics becomes a difficult sell.
I think the dynamic is more subtle than overt racial discrimination -- I'm unaware of any policies currently championed by the GOP that fit that bill (voter ID comes closest). Rather, my theory is that a significant number of working-class whites support a party ostensibly committed to redistributing wealth upward under the assumption that a smaller government means less public funds spent on undeserving minorities. Divorced of that concern (say, in the overwhelmingly white parts of the North), working-class whites gravitate toward class-based politics, and supply-side economics becomes a difficult sell.
So the issue of systematic racism rather than overt racism? Am I correct in my assessment of the public view on the current stance of the far-right if not the GOP as a whole?
"He points out that for a country in which no presidential candidate has received more than 51% of the popular vote since 1988, the electoral map has been very stable."
Agree with the latter sentiment, but Obama carried just shy of 53% of the popular vote in 2008.
Quote:
"That leaves 5 states in the author's opinion that are truly competitive: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia, worth a total of 75 EV."
Nevada rather than North Carolina? I dunno -- the former seems unlikely to remain even marginally competitive for much longer.
Quote:
"If the GOP's internal polling was so bad in the Midwest in 2012 that it wasn't seen as a good investment to spend money there to support native sons from Michigan and Wisconsin against an unpopular black President running in a poor economy, what does that say about their prospects in the Midwest in the future?
Which is interesting because a piece published in The New Republic shortly after the election purported to show that the Romney campaign's internal polls were deceptively favorable. But, as you note, money talks/BS walks.
He and others like him think that the GOP should promise amnesty for illegal aliens to Hispanics to gain their vote. .
Amnesty wouldn't be enough to get the illegal aliens to cast for the GOP.
They'll vote almost uniformly for the Democrats, unless the GOP dumps their opposition to a massive expansion of the Welfare State.
People will vote their pocketbooks, and if you are relying on food stamps or SSD checks but don't pay taxes, a politician promising to curtail spending and taxes just isn't going to do it for you, regardless of whether they were for amnesty or not.
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