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The efforts of Republican strategists to mitigate the party's demographic/electoral disadvantages in presidential-year elections (obviously, Democrats contend with the mirror issue in midterms, but young people age, whereas aged people die) have mostly focused on two seemingly distinct strategies: make inroads among minority voters (Hispanics, most conspicuously); make inroads among white voters in the Corn/Rust Belt. Both are sound strategies; however, I think their respective proponents fail to appreciate the degree to which they're necessitated by a common dynamic. Put simply, the GOP's struggles with minority voters and Corn/Rust Belt whites are substantially rooted in the same factor: an aversion to supply-side economics.
In the case of minority voters -- Hispanics, specifically -- Republican strategists often embrace the comforting fiction that granting some minor policy concessions (e.g., immigration reform) and improving outreach efforts would substantially improve the party's margins. The available survey data (I prefer Pew) belies this assumption:
general pop.............. 48/41
Hispanic (all)............ 19/75
- first gen................. 12/81
- second gen............. 22/72
- third gen.+............. 36/58
(At least the latter number is shrinking, I suppose. Unfortunately, social conservatism seems to be on the same trajectory.)
White voters in the Corn/Rust Belt are more muted in their populist/statist proclivities, but the tendency is still pronounced relative to their peers elsewhere:
The 2008 exit polls include the most extensive data on white voters, so I used them in lieu of the 2012 or 2004 versions. Likewise, I focused exclusively on the more traditionally Democratic states in the region (PA, MI, IA, WI, MN), and added West Virginia, Georgia, and Louisiana for the sake of comparison. The former, not surprisingly, are more Democratic-leaning more or less across the board. That said, certain disparities stand out, not the least of which, the magnitude of the electoral gap (and this is within the same racial category, mind you). Moreover, examining the age cohorts, the gap looks likely to persist, if not grow -- younger whites in the five Corn/Rust Belt states are significantly more Democratic than their elders (the difference is smallest in Minnesota, but only because its older voters evince the same lean, which accounts for the state's tendency to resist Republican midterm waves). Likewise, it's clear that the white Democrats in the Corn/Rust Belt are not of the lapsed/legacy variety found in the South/Appalachia -- partisan loyalty remains robust. Lastly, it's evident that the Democratic Party retains considerable strength across diverse socioeconomic classes and geographies (including rural areas, notably).
Consequently, the GOP's twin strategies will either sink or swim in tandem, representing both a tremendous opportunity -- two birds/one stone -- or, if the party's economic ideology remains unyielding, a nearly insurmountable obstacle.
Last edited by drishmael; 04-06-2015 at 10:27 PM..
The GOP can't seem to grasp the reality of the situation. When your policies are racially discriminatory as a matter of course, you can't fool the minority groups (or women) you have disdain for by PRETENDING to be receptive to their needs just for the election.
The GOP is toast. The demographic/electoral problems they face are insurmountable because the GOP is the party of Dixie.
The GOP can't seem to grasp the reality of the situation. When your policies are racially discriminatory as a matter of course, you can't fool the minority groups (or women) you have disdain for by PRETENDING to be receptive to their needs just for the election.
The GOP is toast. The demographic/electoral problems they face are insurmountable because the GOP is the party of Dixie.
If the GOP is 'toast', why are there more elected Republicans than at any time since 1928 and Republicans control the House, Senate, State Governors, and state Legislatures? The obvious answer is that the Democrats are closer to being 'toast' than are the Repubs.
As far as discrination, the Dems own discrimination going back to supporting slavery, supporting rcially discriminatory policies favoring whites, and then racially discriminatory policies favoring blacks when that got them more votes. Repubs are the non-discrimination Party and always have been.
Republicans do grasp the need to expand their base in Presidential years, let's see if they are able to do it with a great candidate, if yes, the Dems will be 'toasted.'
If the GOP is 'toast', why are there more elected Republicans than at any time since 1928 and Republicans control the House, Senate, State Governors, and state Legislatures? The obvious answer is that the Democrats are closer to being 'toast' than are the Repubs.
As far as discrination, the Dems own discrimination going back to supporting slavery, supporting rcially discriminatory policies favoring whites, and then racially discriminatory policies favoring blacks when that got them more votes. Repubs are the non-discrimination Party and always have been.
Republicans do grasp the need to expand their base in Presidential years, let's see if they are able to do it with a great candidate, if yes, the Dems will be 'toasted.'
Because most of those red states are empty states and/or have low voter participation. State legislatures doesn't add up to strong numbers in national politics if those same states only bring 3 or electoral votes with them.
I would worry about your own failed party, if I were you.
For me, I am tickled that you think the Democrat Party's huge failings are simply going to be solved by demographics. Keep whistling past the graveyard.
Because most of those red states are empty states and/or have low voter participation. State legislatures doesn't add up to strong numbers in national politics if those same states only bring 3 or electoral votes with them.
The numbers of states and state legislatures haven't changed since Obama became President, yet the balance of power has, i.e. they may be relatively "empty" but they aren't getting any emptier. It's apples to apples over time, at least back to the 1960's and 70's when many state legislatures significantly changed their number of seats. In addition, state boundaries have changed little over the past century so it is a fair comparison.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LexusNexus
The GOP is toast. The demographic/electoral problems they face are insurmountable because the GOP is the party of Dixie.
As action, so reaction: your party's ever-increasing hatred, prejudice, and racism towards the (white) South* has caused white Southerners to become homogeneously Republican, and thus has locked the Democratic party out of most of the South. People notice this, and you should be concerned about that phenomenon spreading, as it appears to be doing as of 2012 in Appalachia and the Rust Belt. This needs to be addressed at least as much as the GOP needs to address their non-white deficit**, because I for one don't want to see an America where politics everywhere are as racialized as they are in, say, Mississippi. Government becomes worse when elections are fought over racial identity instead of ideology or policy.
*Not just the South, either; to a lesser extent rural areas are hated as "hicks", "backward", "isolated", and "uneducated". Bruce Braley showed this antipathy in the last election and it greatly helped Joni Ernst; this is a side effect of Democrats having lost their rural voters. An Iowa Democratic candidate holding such a view of farmers would have seemed surreal at any time until our own. There is a risk of Democrats becoming a party confined to big city cores and non-white areas, as much as there's a risk of the GOP becoming a party confined to rural areas, the white South, and a smattering of lily-white areas.
**The Democrats' problem may be worse, since whites are the largest demographic there is and will remain so for a long time to come (projections, such as they are, show whites retaining a plurality through 2060).
The numbers of states and state legislatures haven't changed since Obama became President, yet the balance of power has, i.e. they may be relatively "empty" but they aren't getting any emptier. It's apples to apples over time, at least back to the 1960's and 70's when many state legislatures significantly changed their number of seats. In addition, state boundaries have changed little over the past century so it is a fair comparison.
As action, so reaction: your party's ever-increasing hatred, prejudice, and racism towards the (white) South* has caused white Southerners to become homogeneously Republican, and thus has locked the Democratic party out of most of the South. People notice this, and you should be concerned about that phenomenon spreading, as it appears to be doing as of 2012 in Appalachia and the Rust Belt. This needs to be addressed at least as much as the GOP needs to address their non-white deficit**, because I for one don't want to see an America where politics everywhere are as racialized as they are in, say, Mississippi. Government becomes worse when elections are fought over racial identity instead of ideology or policy.
*Not just the South, either; to a lesser extent rural areas are hated as "hicks", "backward", "isolated", and "uneducated". Bruce Braley showed this antipathy in the last election and it greatly helped Joni Ernst; this is a side effect of Democrats having lost their rural voters. An Iowa Democratic candidate holding such a view of farmers would have seemed surreal at any time until our own. There is a risk of Democrats becoming a party confined to big city cores and non-white areas, as much as there's a risk of the GOP becoming a party confined to rural areas, the white South, and a smattering of lily-white areas.
**The Democrats' problem may be worse, since whites are the largest demographic there is and will remain so for a long time to come (projections, such as they are, show whites retaining a plurality through 2060).
Agreed. Too; more and more "multiracial" people are saying they're "white" because they DON'T wanna be associated with la raza and Black hood rats and I CAN'T blame them.
If the GOP is 'toast', why are there more elected Republicans than at any time since 1928 and Republicans control the House, Senate, State Governors, and state Legislatures? The obvious answer is that the Democrats are closer to being 'toast' than are the Repubs.
As far as discrination, the Dems own discrimination going back to supporting slavery, supporting rcially discriminatory policies favoring whites, and then racially discriminatory policies favoring blacks when that got them more votes. Repubs are the non-discrimination Party and always have been.
Republicans do grasp the need to expand their base in Presidential years, let's see if they are able to do it with a great candidate, if yes, the Dems will be 'toasted.'
Because Presidential elections are different from all others. This causes the Presidential election years to have different results than the off-year state elections which typically have far less turnout and tend to swing back and forth in whichever direction the state was heading in the previous Presidential year election.
The only way voter have to voice their dissatisfaction is to vote one party out, but if the dissatisfaction does not dissipate, the party that just got voted in gets voted out just as fast 2 years later.
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There is no resolution for the GOP
