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According to Republican pollster Whit Ayers, the white non-Hispanic percentage of the 2016 popular vote is expected to be 69%, lower than the 72% in 2012, 74% in 2008, 77% in 2004 and 81% in 2000. If minorities do in fact account for 31% of the popular vote in 2016, and Republicans cannot improve on the 17% of the non-white vote that Romney received in 2012, they would need to receive 65% of the white vote nationally. The only candidate to achieve anything close to that in recent political history was Reagan in 1984.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-14-2015 at 10:48 AM..
For Hillary to get more female votes than Obama, two things have to happen: 1) Republican and right leaning Independents will have to spring for Hillary simply because she's a woman, and 2) female turnout will have to be higher. Your mistake is that you are assuming that every black female that voted in 2008 and 2012 will turn out to vote in 2016. I think you folks are making a colossal mistake if you think that black people will show up in 2016 like they did the past two elections. And if they don't? Then Hillary needs that many more people to show up to make up the difference.
Elections are about turnout, not race or gender. Barack Obama was an anomaly. For you folks to rely on his election statistics is a fatal flaw. Bet on it.
Why do Republicans and right leaning Independents have to support Hillary for her to win? They don't represent the majority of voters in presidential elections. Also, the percentage represented by white voters is going to continue to go down due to generational replacement. The white electorate has decreased in every election since 1984 with the exception of 1992. That's going to continue. It has nothing to do with Obama.
Why do Republicans and right leaning Independents have to support Hillary for her to win? They don't represent the majority of voters in presidential elections. Also, the percentage represented by white voters is going to continue to go down due to generational replacement. The white electorate has decreased in every election since 1984 with the exception of 1992. That's going to continue. It has nothing to do with Obama.
Turnout. Black people will not (mark my words) show up in the same capacity that they did in 2008 and 2012. Not gonna happen. They were apathetic before Obama, and they will be apathetic after Obama. Hillary has to make up those votes somewhere. Where is she going to get them? Maybe more white democrats will show up, maybe they won't. Maybe more independent's will spring for Hillary, maybe they won't (not looking good for her at this juncture). So, where are all these female votes going to come from that Democrat's believe will propel Hillary to the Presidency? Hispanics are conservative by nature. George W. Bush was successful with the Hispanic vote, so they are not a foregone conclusion. They'd have to come from women crossing party lines if Hillary can't compel Democrats to show up to offset the black vote that will not show up like it did the last two elections. I wouldn't be too optimistic that conservative women are going to vote for Hillary if I were you.
Democrats' biggest liability is the sense of "inevitability" they have created out of thin air for Hillary Clinton. This sense of inevitability is driven not by facts, numbers, statistics, or any empirical evidence. Instead, it is driven by the raw acknowledgement that they literally have no one who can win the Presidency if Hillary Clinton wasn't in the race. Democrats are very desperate and grasping at anything to prop them up going into 2016, and everyone knows it. Including Nate Silver.
This. Hillary is "inevitable" at this point literally only because the media keeps saying so. Some leftists on here like to point out polls that show her in the lead (meanwhile they discount polls that show Rand Paul beating her in swing state) but at this point in 2007 her and Rudy Giuliani were crushing the field and Hillary was dominating all the head to head polls. Hillary was "inevitable" in 2007 too, until she wasn't.
There's a difference between a preemptive war and a preventative war -- the more accurate description for Iraq. The Six Days War was preemptive because Israel's enemies were preparing to attack it and had the means and opportunity to do so. The Iraq War was preventative because it was motivated not by an existing threat, but rather by the fear that Iraq would develop WMD in the future.
"Black people will not (mark my words) show up in the same capacity that they did in 2008 and 2012. Not gonna happen. They were apathetic before Obama, and they will be apathetic after Obama."
Black turnout may decline, but it'll likely remain just below white turnout among the major racial cohorts. I don't know where this idea that blacks shirked voting in the pre-Obama era comes from, but it's simply not the case. Your truly apathetic groups are Hispanics and Asians.
Black turnout may decline, but it'll likely remain just below white turnout among the major racial cohorts. I don't know where this idea that blacks shirked voting in the pre-Obama era comes from, but it's simply not the case. Your truly apathetic groups are Hispanics and Asians.
Before Barack Obama, black voter turnout did not surpass 60%. In 2008 and 2012, black voter turnout rose above 60%. I predict that black voter turnout goes back down into the 50's percentile range in 2016. Hillary Clinton should be crossing her fingers that those who stay home aren't located in swing states/precincts.
Before Barack Obama, black voter turnout did not surpass 60%. In 2008 and 2012, black voter turnout rose above 60%. I predict that black voter turnout goes back down into the 50's percentile range in 2016. Hillary Clinton should be crossing her fingers that those who stay home aren't located in swing states/precincts.
not only the % of black votes and Latino % will go down with Hillary.....Obama was huge with the young college voters who turned out for him. They are not excited about Hillary and won't go out and vote for her in the numbers they did Obama.
not only the % of black votes and Latino % will go down with Hillary.....Obama was huge with the young college voters who turned out for him. They are not excited about Hillary and won't go out and vote for her in the numbers they did Obama.
What's going to continue to go down is the percentage of votes cast by whites. It's dropped in every election since 1992 and anyone who expects that to change because of the lack of Barack Obama on the ballot is deluding themselves. The trend didn't start with Obama, and it certainly won't end with Obama. More white voters are dying than are being replaced by 18 year old whites. There could be a comparative reduction in black turnout, but the loss of older white voters will offset that by far, and the percentage of Hispanic voters almost has to go up because of the number of new voters reaching voting age.
Hillary could lose in 2016. No Question. But the percentage of votes cast by whites is going to continue to decline in every presidential election for the foreseeable future. The overall change in the electorate dwarfs whatever variance caused by turnout.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-14-2015 at 03:32 PM..
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) but at this point in 2007 her and Rudy Giuliani were crushing the field and Hillary was dominating all the head to head polls. Hillary was "inevitable" in 2007 too, until she wasn't.
