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What's going to continue to go down is the percentage of votes cast by whites. It's dropped in every election since 1992 and anyone who expects that to change because of the lack of Barack Obama on the ballot is deluding themselves. The trend didn't start with Obama, and it certainly won't end with Obama. More white voters are dying than are being replaced by 18 year old whites. There could be a comparative reduction in black turnout, but the loss of older white voters will offset that by far, and the percentage of Hispanic voters almost has to go up because of the number of new voters reaching voting age.
Hillary could lose in 2016. No Question. But the percentage of votes cast by whites is going to continue to decline in every presidential election for the foreseeable future. The overall change in the electorate dwarfs whatever variance caused by turnout.
Nonsense. White people dying aren't the problem. Getting off the couch and to the polls is the problem. Mitt Romney lost because conservatives sat at home, not because young voters showed up to vote for Obama. In fact, young voters had dismal turnout in 2012. White conservatives have plenty of room to turn an election if they'll just show up.
Trying to appease the GOP base on immigration and doing it in a way that doesn't offend Hispanic voters is a really difficult needle to thread.
Latinos will eventually get it that Democrats will NOT do anything for them when in power.....Dems had congress and the senate from 2006 to 2010 with 2 years with Bush and 2 years of Obama and didn't pass anything. Hell!.,Obama deported more Latinos under his watch than any other president in history.
the reason is the Unions who are the base of the Democrat party are against any type of amnesty because it will hurt their bottom cause.......add to that that that African-American coalition base of the Democrat party is also against amnesty because it will hurt the African-American communities in jobs and lowering wages.
so Latinos will eventually get it that the Democrat party has been using them.
When 90% of your voters are white (GOP), you bet it's a problem.
More comforting fiction. When was the last time they showed up? 2004? Great, that's still leaves the GOP about 4 million votes short of victory.
Yeah, that didn't happen, either.
Voters 18-29
(% of total)
2004: 17%
2008: 18%
2012: 19%
You are peddling half-truths to suit your agenda. Elections are about turnout. Nothing more, nothing less. Past elections are no more an indicator of future voter turnout then black voter turnout can be expected to be a calculus in the post-Obama years.
You are peddling half-truths to suit your agenda. Elections are about turnout. Nothing more, nothing less. Past elections are no more an indicator of future voter turnout then black voter turnout can be expected to be a calculus in the post-Obama years.
Maybe one day you'll step up to the plate with something worth reading, because all you've posted thus far is meaningless drivel.
Talk about selective reading. Your own article talks about minority vote rising because of demographic displacement, and for a party that according to Pew received 88% of their votes from whites, as opposed to 56% for the Democrats, that's signifigant.
Since you cite Pew, here's their 2014 party ID poll. You might want to have a hanky handy though.
Mormons: +48R (you can rest easy. Utah is safe)
White evangelical Protestants: +46R (all of Greater Baptistan is safe)
White Southerners: +21R (already covered by white evangelicals)
Non-college white men: +21R (a large, but shrinking demographic)
Whites: +9R (a very large demographic, but one that is shrinking by 2-3% with every Presidential Election, and a stat that is very skewed due to white Southerners)
Silent Generation: +4R(age 69-86) (a literally dying demographic)
Groups leaning Democrat:
Blacks: +69D (a steady to slowly growing Demographic)
Asian : +42D (a small but growing Demographic)
Religiously unaffiliated: +36D
Post Grad Women: +29D
Jewish: +30D
Hispanic +30D (the fastest growing voting bloc in the country
Millennials (age 18-33) +16D (literally the future)
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-15-2015 at 11:52 AM..
Talk about selective reading. Your own article talks about minority vote rising because of demographic displacement, and for a party that according to Pew received 88% of their votes from whites, as opposed to 56% for the Democrats, that's signifigant.
Since you cite Pew, here's their 2014 party ID poll. You might want to have a hanky handy though.
Mormons: +48R (you can rest easy. Utah is safe)
White evangelical Protestants: +46R (all of Greater Baptistan is safe)
White Southerners: +21R (already covered by white evangelicals)
Non-college white men: +21R (a large, but shrinking demographic)
Whites: +9R (a very large demographic, but one that is shrinking by 2-3% with every Presidential Election, and a stat that is very skewed due to white Southerners)
Silent Generation: +4R(age 69-86) (a literally dying demographic)
Groups leaning Democrat:
Blacks: +69D (a steady to slowly growing Demographic)
Asian : +42D (a small but growing Demographic)
Religiously unaffiliated: +36D
Post Grad Women: +29D
Jewish: +30D
Hispanic +30D (the fastest growing voting bloc in the country
Millennials (age 18-33) +16D (literally the future)
But the biggest takeaway from that article is that most voters identify themselves as 'Independents' which this group will determine the election.
But the biggest takeaway from that article is that most voters identify themselves as 'Independents' which this group will determine the election.
And Democrats and D Independent leaners outnumber Republicans and R Independent leaners by 9%.
The 2016 election will be decided in 7 states; Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. If the Republicans sweep the three most Republican leaning states (North Carolina, Florida and Ohio), they will have 253 electoral votes and defeat or victory will ride on the other 4 states. Virginia will be the focal point for both parties. If the GOP wins the aforementioned 3 states plus Virginia, they're at 266 and only need Iowa or Nevada, or perhaps a New Hampshire to win. Pity the poor residents of Virginia. They're going to be carpet bombed for the next year and a half. Those 7 states accounted for 84% of the total ad time purchased on network and cable TV in 2012, and the 2016 race will be won or lost there. In the context of those 7 states, turnout is critical and is likely to make the difference. In the context of the entire country though, we already know based on past elections what will happen. The total national white vote percentage will be down, due to generational displacement and the minority vote, particularly the Hispanic vote will rise, continuing a trend now 20 years old. How demographic change works out versus turnout in those states will tell the tale.
On election night 2016, watch the returns from North Carolina. It's the most Republican leaning of the contestable states. The polls in NC close at 7:30 and they usually report fairly quickly so it can serve as the Republican canary in the coal mine. In 2000, the networks called NC for Shrub at 7:58, less than 30 minutes after the polls closed. In 2004, Dubya was declared the winner at 8:22. Conversely, when BO carried the state in 2008, it didn't go into his column until the Thursday after the election, and in 2012 it was called for Romney between midnight and 1am, long after the race was called for Obama. If you're a rooter for Team Red, you want NC carried for your guy as soon after 7:30 the better. The longer the race goes past 9 without being projected for the GOP, the less likely it will be a winning night.
Win or lose,it's always interesting.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-15-2015 at 01:52 PM..
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