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W won by carrying CO, NM, IA, MO, NC and VA, in addition to OH IN and FL.
Wouldn't that be enough today?
Bush won 271 EV in 2000 and 286 in 2004 by carrying both FL (29 EV) and OH (18). He would not have won either time if he had lost one, let alone both of them.
The problem with that, WIHS2006, is the undercard would get destroyed by running the GOP equivalent of McGovern, which is what all RWNJ fringe candidates are.
True
Nominating a Cruz or someone like him to "make a statement" would likely significantly weaken the chances for re-election of Republican Senators running for re-election in Blue or Purple states. As it is, Senators Kirk of Illinois and Johnson of Wisconsin are swimming uphill, but selection of a far right "message" candidate could place other Senators like Ayotte of New Hampshire, Toomey of Pennsylvania and Portman of Ohio in serious jeopardy. There are significantly fewer swing voters now and the larger the margin the presidential candidate loses by the more problematic the chances of the aforementioned Senators becomes.
Nominating a Cruz or someone like him to "make a statement" would likely significantly weaken the chances for re-election of Republican Senators running for re-election in Blue or Purple states. As it is, Senators Kirk of Illinois and Johnson of Wisconsin are swimming uphill, but selection of a far right "message" candidate could place other Senators like Ayotte of New Hampshire, Toomey of Pennsylvania and Portman of Ohio in serious jeopardy. There are significantly fewer swing voters now and the larger the margin the presidential candidate loses by the more problematic the chances of the aforementioned Senators becomes.
In 1972, when the Democrats nominated the hapless McGovern, even though McGovern lost 49 states, the Democrats gained 2 seats in the Senate. In 1996, Clinton lost North Carolina but by only 4 points, conservative Jesse Helms ran considerably ahead of the moderate on top of the ticket, beating his liberal opponent by 13. At least 9% of Clinton voters in NC crossed the line and went for Helms for Senate.
I don't think they are as linked as you would think.
In 1972, when the Democrats nominated the hapless McGovern, even though McGovern lost 49 states, the Democrats gained 2 seats in the Senate. In 1996, Clinton lost North Carolina but by only 4 points, conservative Jesse Helms ran considerably ahead of the moderate on top of the ticket, beating his liberal opponent by 13. At least 9% of Clinton voters in NC crossed the line and went for Helms for Senate.
I don't think they are as linked as you would think.
There were more swing voters in 1972. As the partisan divide increases and hardens, split ticket voting is more uncommon, thus candidates in the undercard races saddled with a terrible Presidential candidate face a stronger current than in the past. They can certainly still win, but the bigger the deficit they face in the Presidential vote in their state, the slimmer their odds of prevailing.
I Like Spam, ACA passed mainly due to Obama sweeping in massive #s of Senators and Congressmen, eventually getting a supermajority. Even though Brown broke the 60, the huge quantity allowed 51 votes for ACA while allowing some Blue Dog Dems the luxury of not voting on the bill.
Had LBJ gotten the 2009 Congress swept in, or even HC, I suspect many more sweeping measures would have been enacted..that you and I would dislike. IMO, Obama did not (Thankfully) max out the assets he had.
I would never want to see a supermajority for either party again. It's dangerous.
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