A statistical look at the Swing States 2000-2012 (voters, thought, Reagan)

[Bureaucat]

Using data from Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential elections website Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, here's a look at the results from the past 4 elections nationally and in the states that are remotely competitive.
Listed below are the highs and lows for each Party and the average result over the past 4 elections.

Since the election in 2016 invariably will be decided in these states, I thought it would be interesting to see what recent electoral history would reveal.

National and Swing State Highs and Lows 2000-2012

National D high 52.86% (2008); D low 48.26%
R high 50.73% (2004); R low 45.60%
Last 4 election average: D50.13% R 47.83%

Colorado: D high 53.66% (2008); D low 42:39% (2000)
R high 51.69% (2004); R low 44.71%. (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 48.63% R 48.31%

Florida: D high 50.91% (2008); D low 47.09% (2004)
R high 52.10 (2004); R low 48.10% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 49.19% R 49.52%

Iowa: D high 53.93% (2008); D low: 49.23% (2004)
R high 49.90% (2004); R low: 44.39% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 50.92% R 47.17%

Michigan: D high 57.33% (2008); D low: 51.23% (2004)
R high 47.81% (2004); R low: 40.89% (2008)
Last 4 year election average: D53.47%R 47.84%

Minnesota: D high 54.06%; (2008) D low: 51.09% (2004)
R high 47.61% (2004); R low : 43.82% (2008)
Last 4 year election average: D 51.43% R 45.47%

Nevada D high 55.15% (2008) D low 45.98% (2000)
R high 50.47% (2004) R low 42.65% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 50.34% 47.08%

New Hampshire D high 54.13% (2008) D low 46.80% (2000)
R high 48.87% (2004) R low 44.52%
Last 4 election average: D 50.79% R 46.97%

New Mexico D high 56.91% (2008) D low 47.91% (2000)
R high 49.84% (2004) R low 41.78% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D51.72% R 45.58%

North Carolina D high 49.70% (2008) D low 43.20% (2000)
R high 56.03% (2000) R low 49.38% (2008)

Last 4 election average: D 46.21% R 52.96%

Ohio: D high 51.38% (2008); D low: 48.71% (2004)
R high 50.81% (2004); R low: 46.80% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 49.28% R 48.8%

Oregon: D high 56.75% (2008); D low: 46.96% (2000)
R high 47.19% (2004); R low: 40.40% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 52.33% R 44.01%

Pennsylvania: D high 54.47%; D low: 50.60% (2000)
R high 48.42%; R low: 44.15% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 51.99% R 46.39%

Virginia: D high 52.63% (2008) D low 44.44% (2000)
R high 53.68% (2004) R low 46.33% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 48.43% R 49.94%

Wisconsin: D high 56.22% (2008) D low 47.83% (2000)
R high 49.32% (2004) R low 42.31% (2008)
Last 4 election average: D 51.65% R 46.28%

[WaldoKitty]

You left North Carolina out of your list. Now the 9th largest state in the USA. The State where the DNC held it's last convention and where Obama said it represents the future of the DNC.

In 2022, it will no doubt gain even more electoral votes since it is now larger than NJ or Michigan, and headed towards overtaking Ohio along with GA. (though GA isn't a swing state)

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

You left North Carolina out of your list. Now the 9th largest state in the USA. The State where the DNC held it's last convention and where Obama said it represents the future of the DNC.

In 2022, it will no doubt gain even more electoral votes since it is now larger than NJ or Michigan, and headed towards overtaking Ohio along with GA. (though GA isn't a swing state)

My bad, I'll add it. Actually I left out all of the N swings.

[sware2cod]

Is Nevada starting to be a swing state?

[WaldoKitty]

With King Hillary being nominated soviet style by DNC, you will be seeing many many more swing states added to the list.

[Dockside]

Interesting stats, if Democrats vote straight party line. That's where a guy like Trump turns both parties upside down. Nothing will surprise me in 2016.

[Unsettomati]

Nicely done. I like data-driven analyses.

Some comments:

Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
The idea of the above states as swing states is dubious. The Democrats have won Michigan and Pennsylvania six times in a row, even during the two Bush victories in 2004 and 2000. Also, Pennsylvania is decidedly non-swingy:
Swing Voters and Elastic States | FiveThirtyEight

Oregon and Wisconsin? They've won them seven times in a row, even when Dukakis was getting crushed by GHW Bush in 1988.

And Minnesota? The Democrats haven't lost it since 1972 - it even weathered the Reagan landslide of 1984.

These are all states that Republicans think "This is finally the year we take [MN or OR or PA or WI]!". But they never actually do. They're not swing states because... well, because they never swing right.

North Carolina
I'm not sure I'd call this a swing state yet. It's trending that way, and I know Obama carried it in 2008. But that was the perfect storm of a very large popular vote margin for the Democratic ticket, combined with an outspent McCain (who relied on federal funding, on which Obama passed - allowing him to significantly outspend the GOP ticket). The result is that McCain had to put his limited resources into genuine swing states and ignore states like North Carolina (Indiana was another) and just hope they fell into line anyway.

I'd wait until we see how 2016 pans out before declaring North Carolina a swing state.

New Mexico
Even though Bush carried this as recently as 2004 (barely), it's hard to call it a swing state now. First, Obama not only carried it twice, he did so by double-digit margins both times. And the driver of that change is the cratering of Hispanic support for Republicans - and there's nothing whatsoever that's transpired over the last three years to suggest that that trend is reversing. Simply put, New Mexico has lurched so far left due largely to a dynamic that is ongoing that it has moved beyond swing state status.

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by Unsettomati

Nicely done. I like data-driven analyses.

Some comments:

Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
The idea of the above states as swing states is dubious. The Democrats have won Michigan and Pennsylvania six times in a row, even during the two Bush victories in 2004 and 2000. Also, Pennsylvania is decidedly non-swingy:
Swing Voters and Elastic States | FiveThirtyEight

Oregon and Wisconsin? They've won them seven times in a row, even when Dukakis was getting crushed by GHW Bush in 1988.

And Minnesota? The Democrats haven't lost it since 1972 - it even weathered the Reagan landslide of 1984.

These are all states that Republicans think "This is finally the year we take [MN or OR or PA or WI]!". But they never actually do. They're not swing states because... well, because they never swing right.

North Carolina
I'm not sure I'd call this a swing state yet. It's trending that way, and I know Obama carried it in 2008. But that was the perfect storm of a very large popular vote margin for the Democratic ticket, combined with an outspent McCain (who relied on federal funding, on which Obama passed - allowing him to significantly outspend the GOP ticket). The result is that McCain had to put his limited resources into genuine swing states and ignore states like North Carolina (Indiana was another) and just hope they fell into line anyway.

I'd wait until we see how 2016 pans out before declaring North Carolina a swing state.

New Mexico
Even though Bush carried this as recently as 2004 (barely), it's hard to call it a swing state now. First, Obama not only carried it twice, he did so by double-digit margins both times. And the driver of that change is the cratering of Hispanic support for Republicans - and there's nothing whatsoever that's transpired over the last three years to suggest that that trend is reversing. Simply put, New Mexico has lurched so far left due largely to a dynamic that is ongoing that it has moved beyond swing state status.

I pushed the envelope purposely on swing states, including all states that could be remotely considered competitive in 2016. I included all of the 12 states that were considered to be swing states in 2008 (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin) and also included two other predominantly white states (Minnesota and Oregon) that some demographers think might become more competitive. Some would also include Arizona or Georgia, but I think it's at least a couple of cycles early for either to really be competitive. Perhaps "competitive states" would be better wording because that's what we're really talking about. They're basically states where the margins are generally within 10 points. New Mexico has pretty much joined the Blue Wall but we need to see how it performs after Obama as confirmation. North Carolina was only carried by Romney by 2%. Like with New Mexico we need to see how it trends without Obama, but it certainly appears to becoming more competitive as its college grad and minority percentages continue to grow.