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Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats. Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.)
So assuming the base (the base is all other GOP primary voters who backed someone else other than Trump) will vote for him; I think even that won't be enough for Trump to win if he doesn't have the back of Independents. And he is REALLY unpopular with Independents
I've always said it's possible that Trump could inspire people to go out to vote against him that otherwise would sit out the election this year, but at this point he's the best chance we actually have. There is far less crossover appeal for Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.
The election map is not favorable to any Republican, but Trump is very charismatic compared to Hillary Clinton. The democrats underestimate him at their peril.
Nate Silver? The guy who said last July that Trump wouldn't last. Says that Trump has 2% chance of being nominated.
He's gotten quite bitter about it.
So you guys championed Silver when he got the 2014 midterms correct up and down the board, but now he's wrong because he says the guy you want is in deep water? Gotcha unlike you, Silver is actually objective in his analysis and has been more right than wrong. Don't shoot the messenger if you don't like the message
So do you believe him when he says Trump won't be the GOP nominee?
Based on his track record, I believe in Silver's ability to construct a statistical model based on polls and other data. I could be wrong, but I haven't seen anything that indicates that he is a partisan . . . he is just calling what he sees. We will see about the GOP nomination. There are two ways for Mr. Trump to not be the nominee.
You mean the hack who forecasted 49 out 50 states in 2008, and 50 out of 50 in 2012? You're right, he's got no clue.
Mick
Oh he's not forecasting a shoe-in for his idol, therefore he's obviously wrong and cannot be relied on
I've been saying for a while now Trump is in trouble, and now Silver backs up my opinion.
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unlike you, Silver is actually objective in his analysis and has been more right than wrong. Don't shoot the messenger if you don't like the message 
and cannot be relied on 
