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Old 01-24-2016, 02:01 PM
mm4 mm4 started this thread
 
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Closing in fast in SC polling:

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20160122/PC1603/160129818/1031/palmetto-sunrise-new-poll-shows-sanders-chipping-at-clinton-x2019-s-lead-in-sc

 
Old 01-24-2016, 02:27 PM
 
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I knew this was going to happen. Clinton is a terrible canddiate. Bernie speaks for the left, so why not make it official.

The reason Clinton is up in SC is not becaus of her popularity with blacks, but because Bernie has not really started to contest it yet.
 
Old 01-24-2016, 02:37 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cachibatches View Post
I knew this was going to happen. Clinton is a terrible canddiate. Bernie speaks for the left, so why not make it official.

The reason Clinton is up in SC is not becaus of her popularity with blacks, but because Bernie has not really started to contest it yet.
Bernie doesnt have the support or money to campaign across the country. He'll do ok in the beginning states but doomed to fail as other states have elections closer together to one another..
 
Old 01-24-2016, 02:51 PM
 
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Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
Bernie doesnt have the support or money to campaign across the country. He'll do ok in the beginning states but doomed to fail as other states have elections closer together to one another..
Really? He's leading over Hillary in Alaska, and leading 2 to 1 among independents in Alaska, a state where he has done zero campaigning or paid ads or anything.
 
Old 01-24-2016, 02:51 PM
 
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SC has an open primary and no party registration. Any registered voter can choose to vote in one primary.

In reading through the nitty gritty details I find it interesting that only 23% of Whites in SC plan to participate in the DNC primary. It's 81% for Blacks. This is potentially bad news for Bernie.

He is polling 60% with Whites, but only 22% for Blacks.
 
Old 01-24-2016, 02:57 PM
 
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The trend is pretty clear IMO. He's up across the nation in state after state. And that's before the primaries in the two important first states. I wonder how Nevada will vote when the results of the first two states are known. Nevada is the number 3 state after all. A week before SC.

Last edited by PCALMike; 01-24-2016 at 03:16 PM..
 
Old 01-24-2016, 03:22 PM
 
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As follow up to my last post. I looked at who that will play out.

SC only lists registered voters as White and non-White. It breaks down as 70% and 30%. For the purposes of this analysis, I'll assume non-White = Blacks

So just playing with the numbers. (from SC BOE)

SC DNC Primary
  • White Voters who will vote in DNC Primary = 626,126
  • Black Voters who will vote in DNC Primary = 670,340
  • Total voting in DNC Primary = 1,296,466
From Poll Statistics
  • White vote for Sanders = 375,675
  • Black vote for Sanders = 147,474
  • Total vote for Sanders = 523,149
Percentage = 40% = Sanders Loss

If Bernie can get the Black vote up to 41% then he wins primary. Not an impossible task, but he has just over a month to get it there.
 
Old 01-24-2016, 03:42 PM
 
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Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
Really? He's leading over Hillary in Alaska, and leading 2 to 1 among independents in Alaska, a state where he has done zero campaigning or paid ads or anything.
Really? Alaskas your example? How Clinton campaigned there either?
 
Old 01-24-2016, 03:43 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PCALMike View Post
The trend is pretty clear IMO. He's up across the nation in state after state. And that's before the primaries in the two important first states. I wonder how Nevada will vote when the results of the first two states are known. Nevada is the number 3 state after all. A week before SC.
I agree with you here, he is up nation wide, by huge leaps and bounds.. But as you just noted above, he hasnt campaigned or spent money in states, (like Alaska)

Do you really believe it doesnt take money and campaigning, along with ground support to win a Presidential campaign?
 
Old 01-24-2016, 04:16 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
I agree with you here, he is up nation wide, by huge leaps and bounds.. But as you just noted above, he hasnt campaigned or spent money in states, (like Alaska)

Do you really believe it doesnt take money and campaigning, along with ground support to win a Presidential campaign?
Sure, I agree it takes money but as several polls show from all sorts of states (Alaska being a red conservative state) he's polling pretty darn well even before he will start spending money in these states. And he has managed to raise alot of money, well exceeding expectations and has more individual contributors to his campaign than any other in American history. Well over a million Americans. Sure, it's just ordinary, everyday Americans chipping in, but they can and will contribute again and again because they're far from maxed out unlike the maximum $2700 a plate country club dinners other candidates go for.

I think it's impressive considering the money and power he is up against and being fairly unknown until a few months ago compared to the "star name Clinton". I think the Internet is really becoming increasingly important as well and that's what we see being played out too. It is a sort of democratizing factor. And it makes it slightly easier to compete without begging the rich and powerful for money and eventually making it possible to elect people who will push for public funding of elections so everyone can run for office without having to run into the hands of the big money donor class.
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