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From Nate Silver's website, fivethirtyeight, Here are projections of Bernie's progress, based on various criteria.
I hope the Michigan projection comes true! Our primary seems so far away... Bernie, Hillary and Trump have just this week set up their respective camps in my town.
These are not projections or progress, just laying out what he thinks Bernie would need to do to win. The actual prediction for Michigan is here - 95% probability of a Hillary win in Michigan, 89% looking just at state polling data
These are not projections or progress, just laying out what he thinks Bernie would need to do to win. The actual prediction for Michigan is here - 95% probability of a Hillary win in Michigan, 89% looking just at state polling data
Didnt Silver say Bernie would peak at 25% in national? He's now pushing 40-45% in national polls and putting up a real fight. Hillary is throwing the Wall Street Super PACs and the kitchen sink at his campaign.
Didnt Silver say Bernie would peak at 25% in national? He's now pushing 40-45% in national polls and putting up a real fight. Hillary is throwing the Wall Street Super PACs and the kitchen sink at his campaign.
More PAC money was spent in Iowa for Bernie than for Hillary or O'Malley.
And it continues to be spent on him - for those who support him and by the Republicans who still see him as the easier to beat candidate.
Didnt Silver say Bernie would peak at 25% in national? He's now pushing 40-45% in national polls and putting up a real fight. Hillary is throwing the Wall Street Super PACs and the kitchen sink at his campaign.
Nate Silver is routinely wrong. And if he were asked, I expect he would be willing to admit it without pause. But his most devout followers have selective memory recall, to say the least. They like to reference his evaluation of the polls from a few days before the 2012 election, while pretty much ignoring all of the many others where he missed the mark.
Didnt Silver say Bernie would peak at 25% in national? He's now pushing 40-45% in national polls and putting up a real fight. Hillary is throwing the Wall Street Super PACs and the kitchen sink at his campaign.
SuperPACs are not allowed to coordinate with campaigns. And the SuperPAC supporting Hillary only very recently decided to spend money during the primaries. They originally planned to wait until the general election season.
It is difficult to imagine Bernie being able to compete with republicans, who will be getting millions of dollars in SuperPAC support, in the general election if he asks no SuperPAC to support him (which is not a request they would be legally bound to honor.)
The whole SuperPAC thing is a straw man IMO.
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