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I hope that both Cruz and Rubio stay in for the long haul. They split the opposition votes that could side with either one of them. They are both currently doing a great job at propelling Trump to the top.
There is also a good chance that Cruz could win or at least take second place in Texas. That would fuel his desire to continue. But Trump's delegate count will still climb as long as these two battle out second place.
If anyone should drop out I believe it's Rubio, besides Kasich and Carson of course. Republican voters are not going to elect someone who's for amnesty, and anything short of deportation is amnesty in many voters minds. So Rubio doesn't have a shot at winning.
If Rubio dropped out Cruz may be able to attract enough of his support to go toe to toe with Trump. Better Cruz than Trump in my view. Much better.
Or does he make some sort of deal with the establishment and bow out to give Rubio a fighting chance?
Lets keep in mind. Cruz has more delegates than Rubio, and Cruz has managed to win a state.
What can the "establishment" offer Cruz? For the most part they hate him more than Trump.
It's not clear to me that Cruz's votes will go to Rubio. People faced with picking a new candidate generally don't pick losers and at this point, Rubio is a loser.
I don't think you'll see anyone drop out until after Super Tuesday. Cruz and Rubio are so close - they're neck and neck - 2nd and 3rd by less than a per cent - so for Cruz to drop out is stupid. Cruz actually has 16 delegates to Rubio's 15 - so he's ahead so maybe Rubio should bow out?
As for number of delegates, right now this should make very little difference. We have only had 4 primaries or caucuses. I also don't see Cruz dropping out for a long time if at all. I do see some of his supporters drift over to Rubio in the future, but we all know Cruz will win Texas and that is a huge win for him.
As for Rubio dropping out, I know you are not serious about this. of course he has no reason to drop out. He has out preformed what was expected in every race so far except maybe NH.
If anyone should drop out I believe it's Rubio, besides Kasich and Carson of course. Republican voters are not going to elect someone who's for amnesty, and anything short of deportation is amnesty in many voters minds. So Rubio doesn't have a shot at winning.
If Rubio dropped out Cruz may be able to attract enough of his support to go toe to toe with Trump. Better Cruz than Trump in my view. Much better.
either Cruz or Trump are going to be disasters if elected. For one reason if not more: neither will have the support of the congress. As for Rubio and Republicans supporting him, I happen to think if it comes down to him versus Bernie or even Hillary he wins. Yes, the Republicans, the true ones will come out and support him. Ii hate to think anyone is so narrow minded they would vote for a candidate based on one issue. Intelligent people vote based on overall policies and ideas, not one.
Everyone's hope is to go to a contested convention (that's why Kasich and Carson are still in it . . . ). But once it's probable that Mr. Trump would get a majority of delegates, those two would be gone. I think the top 3 will stay in for the long haul.
Mick
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty
Lets keep in mind. Cruz has more delegates than Rubio, and Cruz has managed to win a state.
What can the "establishment" offer Cruz? For the most part they hate him more than Trump.
It's not clear to me that Cruz's votes will go to Rubio.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rizzo0904
I'm a Kasich supporter ... I will switch to Trump when Kasich drops out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita
I also don't see Cruz dropping out for a long time if at all. I do see some of his supporters drift over to Rubio in the future ...
I've thought about it a little further, also in light of the above discussion. I make the following observations/assumptions and conclusions.
My impression is that, if some combination of Cruz/Rubio/Kasich/Carson were to drop out "prematurely", a significant enough number of voters would crossover to Trump to catapult him above the 50% mark in many, if not most, primaries, and his capturing of enough delegates to win the nomination outright, even before the convention, would be that much faster.
If the establishment wants to keep open as many options as possible, then it may have an interest in continuing to fragment the vote such that, while Trump may maintain a plurality in many, if not most, of the upcoming primaries, they could slow his rise to capturing a majority of the delegates and in any case attempt to garner some kind of leverage, especially if the nomination is not a 100% foregone conclusion before the convention.
Naturally the establishment would prefer Rubio, but he really does not have enough mass appeal even under the republican umbrella by the widest definition to draw a majority of votes.
Donald Trump cuts across so many different lines, circles, and angles that these people backing the likes of Bush and Rubio and Clinton truly do not understand. They thought they had everyone neatly trapped in tiny little compartmentalized mutually exclusive boxes.
Cruz needs to win Texas. A loss there and Rubio gaining a stronghold on second place overall (by way of other Super Tuesday states) puts Cruz is a bad position.
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