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He is favored in the western states ( OR, CA, WA) If he wins those it would help him add a huge amount of delegates. Not sure how he would do in AK, AZ, or NY??
As others have said... California? It's a semi-closed primary with a very brown Democratic electorate. And he's favored there? Okay. Any actual evidence of that?
Now, let's look at next week. Sure, Sanders is going to win 2 out of the 3 contests. He'll take Idaho and Utah (I guess those red states matter when Sanders is favored, huh?). But Clinton is going to win Arizona big. And Arizona, having more people than those other two states combined, has more delegates than those other two states combined (85 to 64).
See, there's only 28 contests left. Sanders has to average a net delegate gain of about 11 from each one to catch Clinton. But after next week, there'll only be 25 contests left and her lead will have bumped up a little, so from then on he'll have to average a net delegate gain of 12 or 13 per contest. But that includes contests like Guam and the Virgin Islands, which are each worth only 12 delegates, period. Is he going to sweep them?
Further, there's a lot of closed primaries coming up, which are limited to people who are actually members of the Democratic Party. Clinton has dominated closed primaries so far, and she's held her own in closed caucuses. Come mid-April, there's six contests left in the month. Five are closed primaries, in NY, CT, DE, MD, and PA. a semi-closed primary in RI. Those include her home state, and southern New England states (she's already won MA), and PA (demographically similar to OH, where she just won) and DE (moderately high black population) and MD (even higher black population).
Those six states have over 750 delegates at stake. All those states between AZ and mid-April, where Bernie will be mostly favored? Less than 350 total delegates at stake. By the end of April, it'll be a miracle if Bernie is down fewer delegates than he is now. And then there will only be 14 states left.
It's just math.
I like Sanders. I like that he's been in the race and I hope he stays in it. I like that he's pulling Clinton and the party left. I like that he's increasing the chance of a running mate like Elizabeth Warren, or maybe Tom Perez. But barring a Clinton indictment (which is the unicorn the right has been convinced they're on the verge of catching for the past quarter century... but they never do -- and sadly some Sanders supporters have jumped on that repugnant train as of late) or a major health issue, Clinton will be the nominee.
I know a few hardcore "democrats" (meaning: they always vote for democrats regardless who it is; each election they vote just to make sure the Republican doesn't win, regardless who are the candidates). These few folks that I know are for Clinton this years (though the spouse of one of them are strongly for Bernie). Almost all of them are what one would say "very nice folks", kind, etc.. But kind people can be so different, in intelligence, in mindset, in their life phillsophy, etc...
So one of these folks was at the Ohio democratic dinner last weekend where both Clinton and Bernie gave speeches, and said to me that Bernie was "atrocious" (huh???), that he said he would/could do this, do that....; and that Clinton's speech was "brilliant" (huh???).
Here is a report about that dinner, and it seems one of the reason may be Bernie only gave a 6 minute speech due to being in a rush to the town hall meeting, while Clinton's speech was 4 times as long (some 25 minutes). Here are the speeches they gave. When I said Clinton is a liar, the reply? "Who don't lie?"
It seems to me many of those traditional democrats (usually older age) are glued to establishment. They aren't interested in anyone or anything new. Very close-minded IMO.
Now, let's look at next week. Sure, Sanders is going to win 2 out of the 3 contests. He'll take Idaho and Utah (I guess those red states matter when Sanders is favored, huh?). But Clinton is going to win Arizona big. And Arizona, having more people than those other two states combined, has more delegates than those other two states combined (85 to 64).
Even though this seems like a logical analysis, it looks like internal polls are showing Bernie ahead in AZ and the Clinton camp has indicated they don't expect to win there.
But of course with proportional delegates, it's likely that there will not be a huge shift in the delegate lead even if Sanders does end up having the best week of his campaign.
you're correct.. for a loser, he did quite nicely..
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest
/end
And mic drop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74
Where is the evidence he is favored in California? People keep saying this and I've asked several times and no one has provided anything to support this claim.
Magical thinking! That's all the evidence delusional zealots need.
Even though this seems like a logical analysis, it looks like internal polls are showing Bernie ahead in AZ and the Clinton camp has indicated they don't expect to win there.
But of course with proportional delegates, it's likely that there will not be a huge shift in the delegate lead even if Sanders does end up having the best week of his campaign.
Ah, more explanation. Bernie's pouring money into the state, and the Clinton campaign is declining to match the 1.5 million he's spending on advertising.
Ironic that Bernie is trying buy elections, isn't it?
Ah, more explanation. Bernie's pouring money into the state, and the Clinton campaign is declining to match the 1.5 million he's spending on advertising.
Ironic that Bernie is trying buy elections, isn't it?
his entire campaign is about buying voters...
free X for votes
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