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California has been written off so thoroughly by Republicans that nobody even talks about it. I love to see how Trump does there. Question is will the race last until June 7. Not sure if it is an open primary or not.
California has been written off so thoroughly by Republicans that nobody even talks about it. I love to see how Trump does there. Question is will the race last until June 7. Not sure if it is an open primary or not.
It is 172 and they are "winner take all", but it is by congressional district, rather than state wide.
I'm guessing things will be pretty much decided by then. It's unfortunate that some states have more influence than others. I think they should draw states' names from a hat every election year so different states can have the opportunity to influence the election.
well, this is the year California finally matters for Republican party. lol
Trump, Nehring notes, has won just six of 16 closed primaries so far and does better when Democrats can vote in GOP primaries.
Will enough California Republicans want a contested convention? Or will they rally around Trump to prevent one? Will any candidate run the table in California, or will results be mixed? The state awards 159 of its 172 GOP delegates by congressional district — three delegates per winner in each of the 53 districts — and 13 to whoever wins the state.
All this is a wonky way of saying you decide. You.
California primary could seal the deal for Donald Trump
California has been written off so thoroughly by Republicans that nobody even talks about it. I love to see how Trump does there. Question is will the race last until June 7. Not sure if it is an open primary or not.
Honestly, California should move their primary up. It's the biggest prize by far -- 172 delegates and winner-take-all. Things are shaping up to make it so California might actually matter for a change, despite being a June 7th primary. But it's a mystery to me why any June 7th state would want to continue to hang out in "irrelevant land."
My prediction (just my opinion) is that Ted Cruz and Trump would be pretty close. Cruz perhaps would win California Republican primary.
The most recent polls show 38% for Trump, 22% for Cruz , 20% for Kasich and 20% other/undecided. It does a fine job of showing the math problem that having both Cruz and Kasich in the race causes. It is incredibly unlikely that Trump doesn't get at least some of that undecided vote -- but just for fun, let's say he doesn't. Let's say that Cruz and Kasich split the undecided vote equally. They'd still lose.
If Kasich is still in this thing by June 7th, Trump will win California.
If Kasich drops out then it get pretty interesting. How do Trump and Cruz split that 40% of the undecided vote? If Cruz got 25% and Trump got 15%, Trump would still win. But if Cruz got 3/4 of the undecided vote -- 30% -- then he wins. Getting 3/4 of that vote is a pretty tall order though. Just because you supported Rubio or Kasich or somebody else does not mean you will support Cruz nor does it mean that you won't support Trump.
I've kinda resigned myself to the orange man winning the GOP nomination. I'm voting Libertarian anyways, so I don't have to pick between him and Hitlery. But it's comforting to know that there's at least some small shred of a chance for Trump to lose.
The most recent polls show 38% for Trump, 22% for Cruz , 20% for Kasich and 20% other/undecided. It does a fine job of showing the math problem that having both Cruz and Kasich in the race causes. It is incredibly unlikely that Trump doesn't get at least some of that undecided vote -- but just for fun, let's say he doesn't. Let's say that Cruz and Kasich split the undecided vote equally. They'd still lose.
If Kasich is still in this thing by June 7th, Trump will win California.
If Kasich drops out then it get pretty interesting. How do Trump and Cruz split that 40% of the undecided vote? If Cruz got 25% and Trump got 15%, Trump would still win. But if Cruz got 3/4 of the undecided vote -- 30% -- then he wins. Getting 3/4 of that vote is a pretty tall order though. Just because you supported Rubio or Kasich or somebody else does not mean you will support Cruz nor does it mean that you won't support Trump.
I've kinda resigned myself to the orange man winning the GOP nomination. I'm voting Libertarian anyways, so I don't have to pick between him and Hitlery. But it's comforting to know that there's at least some small shred of a chance for Trump to lose.
hm Interesting, you probably are right about this.
For me personally, I am still undecided.
I might vote for Libertarian party if it is Hillary vs Cruz, but if it is Hillary vs Trump, I think I would go with Mr. Trump because I think he has a slight chance of beating her.
Honestly, California should move their primary up. It's the biggest prize by far -- 172 delegates and winner-take-all. Things are shaping up to make it so California might actually matter for a change, despite being a June 7th primary. But it's a mystery to me why any June 7th state would want to continue to hang out in "irrelevant land."
California did move the primary up for several elections. (IIRC it was in March.) It was moved back to June as a cost-saving measure.
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