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Don't tell this to the Trumpets. They think he is sailing to a landslide victory and Hillary is headed to jail. lololol ... this is what happens when you build a base on denying science, logic and reason.
I wouldn't be so quick to gloat if I were you, because your party is building a base that advocates socialism, hates cops, and cries "racism" at the drop of a hat. Let's see how that works out for the Democrats over the next four years.
It seems that the "Trump effect" is bad news for the GOP (not surprisingly). I have also seen polls showing the Dem Senate candidate (Kirkpatrick) coming shockingly close to McCain ... a 1% margin. This is not good news for the GOP's hopes to keep the Senate.
This is the heart and soul of the "establishment GOP's" opposition to Trump: fear of losing control of Congress. A Trump candidacy will depress voting among reliably Republican voters who can't bring themselves to vote for Hillary. Those who come to the polls to vote specifically against Trump may or may not vote for any Republicans for other offices, but certainly the 2016 GOP primary season hasn't shown the GOP in good light. Also, Congress has such a low approval rating that anti-Trump voters might take their anger out on Republican Congressional candidates particularly since they would be associated with Trump.
I don't know how realistic it is to think the Dems can take the House, but the Senate is definitely in play. Of the 1/3 of the Senate that's up for election this cycle, I think 24 are Republicans. Low Republican turn out coupled with higher Dem/Independent turn out would give the Dems the Senate.
I wouldn't be so quick to gloat if I were you, because your party is building a base that advocates socialism, hates cops, and cries "racism" at the drop of a hat. Let's see how that works out for the Democrats over the next four years.
This isn't our base, Dole. Hillary, whose husband was the founder of third way Democratic, Republican-lite politics, is easily beating Bernie in the primaries. You are correct though if the party moves more to the left it will bite us in future elections.
I wouldn't be so quick to gloat if I were you, because your party is building a base that advocates socialism, hates cops, and cries "racism" at the drop of a hat. Let's see how that works out for the Democrats over the next four years.
I don't think the Democrats have a problem with any of those issues. The Democrats have been on the side of human rights since the Johnson Administration, and not just for blacks but Latinos, women, gays, immigrants, the poor ... all the groups that the Republican RWers have demonized for decades, and especially recently. That includes both recognition of racism and also police misconduct, which it seems Republicans deny.
As for "socialism", what two domestic programs in American history have been more effective for elderly Americans than Social Security and Medicare? Both are "socialism" as defined by today's Republicans, although both were originally passed and supported by both parties. A single payer health care system similar to Medicare for all Americans would hardly be "socialism" ... or anything particularly new since Medicare is 50+ years old. The idea of "free college tuition" is not particularly socialistic either. It's the idea that used to be quite common in the US: that state governments should support public colleges the same way they supported public elementary and high schools. Most state colleges and universities charged only token tuition until the 1980s when states started withdrawing their support of public colleges.
Im sorry, but a state who has only voted democrat ONCE since 1948 is in no way shape or form anywhere close to a blue state lol. That would be like me saying CA is a red state but its all the liberals in LA that mess everything up. I would have more of a point considering CA was a red state from 1952-1988. However, everyone knows CA is solidly blue just as AZ is solidly red. However, Clinton might change that in AZ this year. Trump certainly wont be turning CA red.
To think that what happened in 1948 or even 2008 is any indication of what could happen in 2016 is simply absurd. Tucson is blue, Flagstaff is bright blue, the reservations are blue, Phoenix (the city) has now gone blue. The Phoenix burbs are red. Your own example of California 1952-1988 is instructive.
What is different here and in the California of the 50s is that the state is not demographically static. Arizona grows by thousands and thousands of people each year. The mix is changing and is getting potentially more and more blue each day. Some are retirees who tend conservative, others are Californians who are more moderate, but most of all, thousands of US born children and grandchildren of illegal immigrants reach the age of 18 every year. The problem in AZ for "blues" is not in the numbers, but in the apathy of younger, and especially hispanic voters. Arizona is among the younger, most hispanic states in the US and we know how they vote. If they showed up at the polls AZ would turn purple or blue in a hurry. Trump may be the catalyst that brings them out. May be.
To think that what happened in 1948 or even 2008 is any indication of what could happen in 2016 is simply absurd. Tucson is blue, Flagstaff is bright blue, the reservations are blue, Phoenix (the city) has now gone blue. The Phoenix burbs are red. Your own example of California 1952-1988 is instructive.
What is different here and in the California of the 50s is that the state is not demographically static. Arizona grows by thousands and thousands of people each year. The mix is changing and is getting potentially more and more blue each day. Some are retirees who tend conservative, others are Californians who are more moderate, but most of all, thousands of US born children and grandchildren of illegal immigrants reach the age of 18 every year. The problem in AZ for "blues" is not in the numbers, but in the apathy of younger, and especially hispanic voters. Arizona is among the younger, most hispanic states in the US and we know how they vote. If they showed up at the polls AZ would turn purple or blue in a hurry. Trump may be the catalyst that brings them out. May be.
Excellent post, and very true. One of the things that a lot of people don't realize is that newcomers don't leave their politics at the state/city lines and adopt the local politics. While it used to be true that cities used to be blue and suburbs red, that's has changed in many parts of the country so that it's more like cities and their close-in suburbs are blue and only the farthest ring of suburbs are reliably red. That's pretty much what's happened around most major American cities. In Washington, DC that phenomenon has turned northern VA into a blue bastion that has turned VA pretty much blue/purple.
Despite the misconceptions of many, Arizona is a far more Libertarian/live and let live state. However, with lots of influx from CA and such, it's becoming more shades of blue I think:
It may be libertarian to some degree but it is still very conservative and many leaving CA for AZ are the conservatives. Others leave to live in OR, or WA. Anyone who puts any credence in this poll is taking polls way to serious. Come Oct. maybe things will change, right now they mean nothing.
There are regions of AZ that lean blue, but the majority of the district where heavy voter turn out can be expected is still very red.
I think that Clinton is favored to win AZ in November. I also feel this way about two other Romney states: GA & NC. Furthermore, I truly think that Clinton has about a 50/50 chance in IN, MO, and TX (and perhaps MT as well).
What is really sad is that Trump will be so bad for the GOP that he will drag down the great John McCain (in his re-election bid to the Senate). This is highly ironic, given Trump's disgraceful comments about McCain's war record.
Aren't you getting a little off subject: this is pretty much about AZ and not the rest of the states.
It may be libertarian to some degree but it is still very conservative and many leaving CA for AZ are the conservatives. Others leave to live in OR, or WA. Anyone who puts any credence in this poll is taking polls way to serious. Come Oct. maybe things will change, right now they mean nothing.
We were living in AZ when the big CA move into there started. I do think when it comes to jobs and illegal immigration, AZ is more than aware of the issues and that they need to resolved. Illegals would certainly vote for Hillary and many do use stolen identities and fake documents. http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/b...f-arizona.html
I am anxious to see the outcome in AZ. I have faith they will make the right choice.
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