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1. The delegates in many states such as Arizona, are only bound on the first ballot.
2. Trump has a large delegate lead on Cruz, but currently has less than 50% of the delegates needed.
3. Trump could pick up a bunch of delegates over the next few weeks and be over the 50% pace, but we don't know that yet.
4. If no candidate gets 1237 on the first ballot, as mentioned above, a bunch of delegates become unbound and anything could pretty much happen, especially considering how hated Trump and Cruz both are.
5. Cruz is currently making a play for the unbound delegates if it were to make it that far. Going after officially unbound delegates is not stealing. It remains unclear on how successful he might be. Many seem to hate both him and Trump.
Last edited by Ibginnie; 04-05-2016 at 11:27 AM..
Reason: deleted quoted post
Okay, so we can get beyond the childish back and forth...
1. The delegates in many states such as Arizona, are only bound on the first ballot.
2. Trump has a large delegate lead on Cruz, but currently has less than 50% of the delegates needed.
3. Trump could pick up a bunch of delegates over the next few weeks and be over the 50% pace, but we don't know that yet.
4. If no candidate gets 1237 on the first ballot, as mentioned above, a bunch of delegates become unbound and anything could pretty much happen, especially considering how hated Trump and Cruz both are.
5. Cruz is currently making a play for the unbound delegates if it were to make it that far. Going after officially unbound delegates is not stealing. It remains unclear on how successful he might be. Many seem to hate both him and Trump.
If you're going to post something, let's get the math right ...
Regarding #2 - Trump currently has 736 delegates which is 59.4% of 1,237. Everyone else together has 802.
According to RCP, Trump needs another 501 delegates which is 53.1% of the remaining total. Since he is favored by large margins in the Northeast, the 53.1% will likely go way down after 4/26.
If you're going to post something, let's get the math right ...
Regarding #2 - Trump currently has 736 delegates which is 59.4% of 1,237. Everyone else together has 802.
According to RCP, Trump needs another 501 delegates which is 53.1% of the remaining total. Since he is favored by large margins in the Northeast, the 53.1% will likely go way down after 4/26.
My wording was poor, but my point remains the same. He currently has less than 50% of delegates allocated so far.
My wording was poor, but my point remains the same. He currently has less than 50% of delegates allocated so far.
True, but that was with more candidates in the race. Everyone knows that Kasich is just in it to stop Trump and Cruz has no realistic shot of getting to 1,237. Especially after the Northeast ...
True, but that was with more candidates in the race. Everyone knows that Kasich is just in it to stop Trump and Cruz has no realistic shot of getting to 1,237. Especially after the Northeast ...
Not denying that, but until Trump clinches the majority it makes sense for the other candidates to prepare for several rounds of balloting at the Convention as it remains a real legit possibility.
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Smash - ty for actually discussing things instead of name calling. You're right - but as leftee has said - it's looks good that Trump will indeed have way over 50% of the delegates in the coming weeks.
Cruz does have every right to wine and dine these delegates if Trump can't reach the goal as does anyone else and all the delegates from all the candidates will be up for grabs.
I don't think tho that Cruz will actually get the nomination with or without these delegates. The last thing the American people want is a preacher. Cruz appealed to me from the beginning for not getting into all th childish behavior in the beginning and keeping low key - unfortunately he started acting like a televangilist. I thought at first it was just a move to win over the evangelicals - but even they dismissed him and voted for Trump.
I've had enough preaching by our current leader and can't stomach anymore.
Not denying that, but until Trump clinches the majority it makes sense for the other candidates to prepare for several rounds of balloting at the Convention as it remains a real legit possibility.
Sure, but IMO a couple of things you can bank on ...
1. If Trump is at 1,200 and doesn't get the nom, he'd be crazy not to run as an Independent.
2. The GOP will never give the nomination to Cruz so it would go to a 3rd ballot
3. The GOP will lose a lot of voters to Trump as an Independent and lose the general.
4. If Trump is close/doesn't get the nom/doesn't run as 3rd, many voters will abandon the GOP and either not vote or vote Dem.
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