Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Not when he can get time to campaign in the state. Polls are always way better for Hillary a few weeks before the primaries before he starts campaigning in the state and run ads. He had a 2 point average lead in Wisconsin on the RCP average. She was 30 points up in Illinois just a week before the primary. That was an open primary. And now he has time to concentrate on a single state again, instead of focusing on half a dozen states at a time which makes it tough to introduce himself to the voters in the state.
Results in WI are pretty consistent with other caucus states, i.e. he outperformed polling. But so far he hasn't been able to win a populous and diverse state. If actually wins NY your optimism might be valid, but if he loses, and especially loses badly, this indicates a consistent pattern, which bodes poorly for him in the vast majority of remaining states.
Results in WI are pretty consistent with other caucus states, i.e. he outperformed polling. But so far he hasn't been able to win a populous and diverse state. If actually wins NY your optimism might be valid, but if he loses, and especially loses badly, this indicates a consistent pattern, which bodes poorly for him in the vast majority of remaining states.
WI is not a caucus state. Voter turnout is high in WI and he does well when lots of people go out and vote. And the GOP voter ID laws in Wisconsin hurt him. He has won every state when there has been record breaking turnout.
Polls 2-3 weeks ahead of the contest usually heavily favors Clinton and then it usually tightens. Whenever he has the chance to introduce himself to the voters, he does well. So more time and space between contests is good.
Apparently it wasn't enough for Trump to cry wolf and accuse Cruz of dirty campaign tricks - he's upped the ante by accusing Cruz of violating federal law without providing a shred of proof to backup his delusional rantings. You can't make this stuff up folks.
WI is not a caucus state. Voter turnout is high in WI and he does well when lots of people go out and vote. And the GOP voter ID laws in Wisconsin hurt him. He has won every state when there has been record breaking turnout.
Polls 2-3 weeks ahead of the contest usually heavily favors Clinton and then it usually tightens. Whenever he has the chance to introduce himself to the voters, he does well. So more time and space between contests is good.
The big picture is sander's has problems with the non-white vote. I think that's the elephant in the room and answers all the questions why he does good in certain states and not others:
Looks like Cruz will take 36 delegates to 6 for Trump in Wisconsin. On the Dem side, still a bit too early to tell as the district data is incomplete and a couple % either way in some of the districts could change things. Looks to be somewhere around a 49-37 or 50-36 delegate haul for Sanders, but that is a vey rough estimate and could be + or - a couple delegates on each side.
WI is not a caucus state. Voter turnout is high in WI and he does well when lots of people go out and vote. And the GOP voter ID laws in Wisconsin hurt him. He has won every state when there has been record breaking turnout.
Polls 2-3 weeks ahead of the contest usually heavily favors Clinton and then it usually tightens. Whenever he has the chance to introduce himself to the voters, he does well. So more time and space between contests is good.
Sorry, my bad. I thought WI and WY were both caucus states.
We'll see how he does in NY; that will be the real indicator of where he is.
The big picture is sander's has problems with the non-white vote. I think that's the elephant in the room and answers all the questions why he does good in certain states and not others:
Thats not really true though. It is a black thing. Not non-white thing. He crushed her in Hawaii which is only 20% white and the least white state in the country. Alaska is 57% white, lower than South Carolina and Lousiana and he got 81% of the vote. He has also won heavily in Muslims dominated counties in Michigan and Minnesota. Polling from California shows he is ahead of her among Asian Americans. When it comes to hispanics, he tied her in Illinois and won in Nevada. When he gets the chance to introduce himself to the voters with the contests being more spread out he does well. He struggles among African Americans that is true. Hillary is like Oprah Winfrey + Obama + something else in the AA community. Thats just the way it is.
It also looks like he won all the demographics in Wisconsin except African Americans.
Thats not really true though. It is a black thing. Not non-white thing. He crushed her in Hawaii which is only 20% white and the least white state in the country. Alaska is 57% white, lower than South Carolina and Lousiana and he got 81% of the vote. He has also won heavily in Muslims dominated counties in Michigan and Minnesota. Polling from California shows he is ahead of her among Asian Americans. When it comes to hispanics, he tied her in Illinois and won in Nevada. When he gets the chance to introduce himself to the voters with the contests being more spread out he does well. He struggles among African Americans that is true. Hillary is like Oprah Winfrey + Obama + something else in the AA community. Thats just the way it is.
It also looks like he won all the demographics in Wisconsin except blacks.
Got ya. It will be interesting how sander's does in states like NY and if he can close the gap. He's pretty far back last I read in the NY poll. That's a state with a big mix. Guess it all depends who shows up to vote that makes the biggest difference in the end.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I thought WI and WY were both caucus states.