Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibby
The oddsmakers predicted Remain in the Brexit Vote by 76-80%
Turned out they got it wrong. I guess the "smart money" went on Exit, but some poor woman placed a 100,000 pound bet (her first ever) on Remain. "Smart Money" figures out what people are thinking, not what pundits and the Political Elite are wishing for.
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But this is not England and we aren't voting on leaving an economic community.
I see no valid comparisons between the odds on our election and Brexit. There are none.
I've believed for months that there will only be about a 5-6 point spread between the winner and loser, but I'm beginning to think it will be wider.
Trump's way of attacking the messenger has gotten him into real trouble this week, and Trump always doubles down on his mistakes. He went from attacking the father of a dead American soldier to the mother, who was so emotional she was afraid to speak for fear of breaking down on national TV.
Then, he followed up by praising Putin, who has been increasingly aggressive ever since the Ukraine invasion, stirring up old memories of the villains of the Cold War. Not a good idea at all to go with the wrong guy in these emotional times.
That's Trump. He picks the wrong target to go after, and then makes it all worse when he persists. That worked in the primaries, when he was posing himself as a completely different alternative to all the other Republicans, but it's already backfiring on him now. With no leadership support from his party, he's running blind, with no political expertise to guide him or hold him up when he stumbles.
His inability to keep his mouth shut and stop going on the defensive at the smallest perceived slight is the real wild card in the odds making now. He can't keep going after the common man if he wants to win. And he can't keep attacking the superficials of the moment either, if he wants to win.
That he is oblivious to this is going to be a real factor by November, as the insults pile up. Common people don't forget insults to others who are just like them, especially in such an emotionally charged election year.
His base support won't carry him to the White House. He has to win over more voters, in his own party and in the Democratic party. If he stays on his present course, one relatively minor mistake coming late could well sink him, as he already has rocks in all his pockets.
Considering all this, I think Trump could lose by 15-25 points.
If he somehow finds the ability to hold himself in check from August onward, the election could be much closer, as everyone has predicted for a long time. 5 points or less.
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