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With the latest batch of news about yet more Trump gaffs and a new slew of state-level polls out showing Trump getting clobbered in swing states, the "Now-cast" referenced by the OP - which was then showing Clinton having an 83.5% chance of victory - currently shows Clinton with a 91.6% chance of victory:
These WILL change of course. The problem for the GOP is that Trump WON'T - which means that between now and election day he will continue to open his big mouth and stick his foot into it up to his thigh - which means his chances of turning things around in any meaningful way are pretty darned slim.
God I LOVE Trump.
He's simply handing the election to Clinton - and in the process tearing the GOP apart.
Ken
Me too...the revered 538 has Trump at 45% chance to win and with serious momentum.
Revered? They said that Trump had a 2% chance to be the GOP nominee.
Hillary's supporters are grasping at straws. They know she is going to lose.
Often, the response to poll data varies with who's ahead. For example, this thread shortly after the GOP convention, when the Now-cast had Trump at 57.5% to win.
Reminds me of the Roger Miller song. Lyrics something like, ...England swings like the pendulum do, 'cept instead of England, substitute Politics. Random thought at best.
Can't help but chuckle though, at the turn of events. And, all during this Clinton fall (bad pun), her campaign massively outspent Trump.
It isn't a meaningless number. As I'm sure most R election strategists would tell you. They have to be scrambling around like a bunch of disturbed ants right now, figuring out how to change that number. If it were meaningless, they'd just say "ho-hum" and turn the next page of the summer novel they're reading.
You are of course right that it will most likely be a different number two weeks from now and that the poll that will settle the question won't occur until November.
Amazing how facts, data, polls upset so many people. You need to look at this data point and the trend over time for the full picture. I don't understand why it's so emotional; facts are facts. Most campaigns projected to lose would use data like this to change their course; because something isn't working. Obviously things could change over the next 7 weeks. October surprise is not out of the question; and who knows what will happen in these debates? With Trump anything could happen.
Someone check the smoking area for the fat lady, she is due onstage soon.
Is Hillary embarking on a new career after the election?
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