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The "election" did not swing from 57% to 83% in a couple of days. The "election" swung a few percentage points (3 - 5%), however in order to win a state candidate only needs to get n/2 + 1 votes in any state. As the electorate is fairy evenly split, a relatively small swing voter sentiment can have a huge impact on the probability of a candidate wining the election.
Secondly, this is a model of the future outcome of a stochastic process, you can't 'prove' a number one way or another. This shows a significant lack of understanding of how these things work.
You didn't really say anything. It's getting more obvious that Silver is throwing in the online poll numbers (as he has said, he uses all polls) to get these big of changes and online polls are completely unreliable.
Funny a new projection poll shows Trump has a 87% probability of being elected! Professor Dr. Helmut
North ( Stoney Brook) political science Dept. Ref: Newsday, Fox News today. So much for Hillary eh!?
Last edited by openmike; 08-03-2016 at 09:25 PM..
Reason: Formating
With the latest batch of news about yet more Trump gaffs and a new slew of state-level polls out showing Trump getting clobbered in swing states, the "Now-cast" referenced by the OP - which was then showing Clinton having an 83.5% chance of victory - currently shows Clinton with a 91.6% chance of victory:
These WILL change of course. The problem for the GOP is that Trump WON'T - which means that between now and election day he will continue to open his big mouth and stick his foot into it up to his thigh - which means his chances of turning things around in any meaningful way are pretty darned slim.
God I LOVE Trump.
He's simply handing the election to Clinton - and in the process tearing the GOP apart.
and I challenge the HRC folks to post here now, in light of that news.
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