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Election strategists have said for 20-25 years a Republican nominee has to recieve at least 40 % of the Hispanic vote to win. The last Republican to do so was Bush 2 based on promises of Immigration Reform/ Amnesty. Republican majority Congress dismissed his attempts twice. Instead of countering, they kicked the can.
It's unlikely Trump will pull 40% on a national basis. Guess we'll see if the election strategists are spot on or if Trump is different.
The question is, why does the Hispanic voter think their ethnic group is above our immigration laws and should be rewarded for breaking them? Aren't they as any other citizen group obligated to respect our immigration laws or are they special?
The question is, why does the Hispanic voter think their ethnic group is above our immigration laws and should be rewarded for breaking them? Aren't they as any other citizen group obligated to respect our immigration laws or are they special?
Because, tribalism.
Moreover, Mexico's government is happy to be dumping their redneck class on us. Ever watch Telemundo? Yeah, I don't see very many Mexican women like that in America. Hot Mexican girls stay in Mexico.
The question is, why does the Hispanic voter think their ethnic group is above our immigration laws and should be rewarded for breaking them? Aren't they as any other citizen group obligated to respect our immigration laws or are they special?
Your statement shows why there is a huge disconnect with the Republican party and Hispanics. Step outside of your over confident, American point of view of how the world should go according to you. If you are Hispanic and have lived under harsh conditions, totalitarianism and drug wars for most of your life, why not take a chance and try to come to America to earn a better life for you and your family? I cannot hate on anyone trying to escape unlivable conditions.
If you read the methodology on some of the state and national polls that are close, they have Trump taking 40% of the hispanic vote, or weight the poll to reflect this.
Your statement shows why there is a huge disconnect with the Republican party and Hispanics. Step outside of your over confident, American point of view of how the world should go according to you. If you are Hispanic and have lived under harsh conditions, totalitarianism and drug wars for most of your life, why not take a chance and try to come to America to earn a better life for you and your family? I cannot hate on anyone trying to escape unlivable conditions.
What part of we have immigration laws aren't you getting? They can come here as refugees if their lives are in danger other than that we cannot allow everyone in here because of their economic problems. Most Hispanics here illegally are here because of the latter not the former. No one has a right to a better life by breaking our laws and taking from our own citizens what doesn't belong them. I don't hate anyone but we can't create problems for our own citizens by allowing unfettered illegal immigration. They need to seek change in their own countries not come here and take from the U.S. taxpayer/worker. They have families to feed also.
As I said, Hispanic citizens are just as obligated to respect our immigration laws as our other citizens are and far too many adhere to tribalism rather than loyalty to this country. The last thing we need is more of them here with that mindset. So the Republican party that wants our immigration laws respected and enforced is a "disconnect" with Hispanic citizens? Think about it! Who's on the wrong side of this?
the Latinos in Miami need put down the rum and look at Mr. T and as themselves the real question-- will this guy really have an interest in all the people of the USA? unfortunately they have their own Rush Limbaugh style commentators-- who sway a lot of people. However----- the Cubans and other Latinos, are true Republicans - the original brand- not is mess you have now. they believe in the original plan-- and are conservative by nature.
I will make a bold prediction: Trump will definitely NOT capture 40% of the Hispanic vote ...
According to Pew Research Center, the only GOP candidate to receive 40% of the Hispanic vote in the last 9 elections was GW Bush on his 2nd term. Six times the GOP candidate received 30%-40% of the vote. The remaining three were George HW Bush (25% on his 2nd term), Mitt Romney 27%, and Bob Dole 21%.
GW Bush supported a change in the Border Crossing Card time limits that was promulgated within a few months of the 2004 election. Under the rules from 1953-2004 Mexicans with the correct credentials could come to the Border Zone (25 miles in CA and TX, 75 miles in AZ, and 55 miles in NM) for up to 72 hours at a time without a visa. GW Bush changed it to 30 days. It was a popular move that he discussed in a meeting at his ranch with President Vicente Fox, and was a factor in bumping his percentage with Latino voters from 35% to 40%.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign believes Trump will win a smaller share of the Hispanic vote than any Republican in modern history, but then what else would they say? Trump's campaign is predicting about 30%.
To some extent Trump doesn't worry that much. He is not campaigning in New Mexico, Texas, or California which have the highest percentage of the Latino's eligible to vote. He is campaigning in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado which have the next highest percentage (14%-22%).
I think that Hillary believes that Tim Kaine will help her win Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, so that she can concentrate on PA and OH.
I'm surprised the number isn't somewhat higher than 13%. Hispanics do not vote as a uniform bloc. Some are liberal, some are conservative. Some Mexican-Americans, who are legal or natural born citizens, resent illegal Central Americans or indigenous Oaxacans. Trump might resonate with them.
Well, the problem with this supposition is that Trump broad brushed Mexicans as a whole, that they resent that, regardless of their status. And this dislike has spread to other Latino groups.
Heck, even Cuban Americans in south Florida, which are more Republican leaning, dislike Trump.
Also, Hispanics/Latinos are not a "one-issue" constituency - it's possible they have other reasons to dislike Trump as well.
According to Pew Research Center, the only GOP candidate to receive 40% of the Hispanic vote in the last 9 elections was GW Bush on his 2nd term. Six times the GOP candidate received 30%-40% of the vote. The remaining three were George HW Bush (25% on his 2nd term), Mitt Romney 27%, and Bob Dole 21%.
GW Bush supported a change in the Border Crossing Card time limits that was promulgated within a few months of the 2004 election. Under the rules from 1953-2004 Mexicans with the correct credentials could come to the Border Zone (25 miles in CA and TX, 75 miles in AZ, and 55 miles in NM) for up to 72 hours at a time without a visa. GW Bush changed it to 30 days. It was a popular move that he discussed in a meeting at his ranch with President Vicente Fox, and was a factor in bumping his percentage with Latino voters from 35% to 40%.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign believes Trump will win a smaller share of the Hispanic vote than any Republican in modern history, but then what else would they say? Trump's campaign is predicting about 30%.
To some extent Trump doesn't worry that much. He is not campaigning in New Mexico, Texas, or California which have the highest percentage of the Latino's eligible to vote. He is campaigning in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado which have the next highest percentage (14%-22%).
I think that Hillary believes that Tim Kaine will help her win Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, so that she can concentrate on PA and OH.
GW Bush also pushed amnesty. Let's face it the bulk of Hispanics especially those with roots from south of our border base their votes on the candidate that will give their ethnic group a pass on our immigration laws. It's self-serving and anti-American.
For historical perspective, both McCain and Romney received 40% of the Hispanic vote in Florida and lost. Romney received 27% of the Hispanic vote nationally and Trump is currently garnering less than half of that.
Trump came in more than 200% of this story's projections.
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