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Florida has 250,000+ more registered Democrats than Republicans.
In a state that casted 9.1 million votes for president in 2016 Trump won by only 114,000 more votes over Hillary.
Dems certainly can win FL. I don't know if I see them winning the state in 2020, though. Let's remember that Obama was able to win FL, in part, due to large, increased turnout among blacks and Hispanics that his candidacy brought about. I'm not confident that any of these other Democrats rumored to be considering throwing their hats in the ring can do the same in a manner to counter Trump's base. We'll see, though.
I can hazard a guess that those numbers have declined since election day.
As for no states making a difference well you seem to have forgotten FL. Trump won FL with 49% to Hillary's 47.8%. He's got 2+ more years of successes to ensure his re-election - that is if he is not impeached before then.
Many Puerto Ricans live in central Florida (e.g. the I-4 corridor). Quite a few (or a lot) of them have fled their fair island in the wake of Hurricane Maria and the abysmal manner in which the Trump Administration has handled the relief effort, or they have family and friends who have experiened that. I'd think they wouldn't be too favorably disposed to Mr. Trump.
Many Puerto Ricans live in central Florida (e.g. the I-4 corridor). Quite a few (or a lot) of them have fled their fair island in the wake of Hurricane Maria and the abysmal manner in which the Trump Administration has handled the relief effort, or they have family and friends who have experiened that. I'd think they wouldn't be too favorably disposed to Mr. Trump.
I think you're referring to the terrible job that the mayor of San Juan did, who politicized things so much (she was an avid Clinton supporter who loved to bash our president) that she canceled the contract of one of the few companies actually willing and able to do work to get electricity back up and running on that island.
Dems certainly can win FL. I don't know if I see them winning the state in 2020, though. Let's remember that Obama was able to win FL, in part, due to large, increased turnout among blacks and Hispanics that his candidacy brought about. I'm not confident that any of these other Democrats rumored to be considering throwing their hats in the ring can do the same in a manner to counter Trump's base. We'll see, though.
The wrinkle on that is that minority voters could be a higher population of the voting pool. The only thing countering that would be mass migration of white to Florida- which is also an on going trend. So if Hispanics/blacks/Asians vote a 5% lower rate but gained an additional couple of percentage points of the electorate it could be a wash.
The big issue with Florida is generally that it is one of the most changing states with people constantly moving in and out. Its not as easy to read the tea leaves when you cannot be sure of the blend.
In my opinion, Trump won in states like FL because people took a flyer on him. "Hey, give the guy a chance." I speculate that when you have that mentality and you couple it with many Democratic supporters likely staying home on election day due to their disgust with Clinton - it led to Trump eking out a 114K win. A win is a win, but I think he'll need a lot of help to win there again.
Who knows, we were surprised once. That doesn't mean it can't happen again though. But I don't know if lightning will strike twice.
In my opinion, Trump won in states like FL because people took a flyer on him. "Hey, give the guy a chance." I speculate that when you have that mentality and you couple it with many Democratic supporters likely staying home on election day due to their disgust with Clinton - it led to Trump eking out a 114K win. A win is a win, but I think he'll need a lot of help to win there again.
Who knows, we were surprised once. That doesn't mean it can't happen again though. But I don't know if lightning will strike twice.
I've seen lightning strike twice in the same spot, but not in a row.
40 years ago, the Democrats had their own lightning bolt. Jimmy Carter.
In my opinion, Trump won in states like FL because people took a flyer on him. "Hey, give the guy a chance." I speculate that when you have that mentality and you couple it with many Democratic supporters likely staying home on election day due to their disgust with Clinton - it led to Trump eking out a 114K win. A win is a win, but I think he'll need a lot of help to win there again.
Who knows, we were surprised once. That doesn't mean it can't happen again though. But I don't know if lightning will strike twice.
The only way the Ds lose in 2020 is to put up an absolutely terrible candidate, even worse than the old hag.
Most people were disgusted with Trump in 2016 and even more will be next time around.
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