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With the margin of error being +/-4.4 with 95% confidence rate, 6 points isn't all that impressive. It seems like the polls are increasing the margin or error.
It is a very small poll: 194 Dems, 183 Reps, 114 Indeps, 2 Other and 7 Refused.
And, the 6 point lead is when only 2 candidates are the choice, but as we know, there will be more than 2. In the 4 way race, Clinton gets 43% and Trump gets 39%, a drop to 4 points. Gosh, and we did have that margin of error of +/- 4.4.
It would be interesting to see the splits in the Hispanic vote between voting for Hillary and Rubio. The biggest takeaway I have on the Senate race is that Murphy is tanking. What was a winnable race without Rubio is now a lost cause with him in the race. Not sure whether it's pro-Rubio or something very negative has happened to the Murphy campaign.
At this point taken at face value, the polls show the Republicans retaining the Senate, losing only Russ Johnson's Wisconsin Senate seat. Things can change and will. It does seem to underscore that a less 'unfavorable' presidential candidate might well have swung the presidency to the Republican's this year.
Long way to go. Both the Senate races and residential race might change.
At this point taken at face value, the polls show the Republicans retaining the Senate, losing only Russ Johnson's Wisconsin Senate seat. Things can change and will. It does seem to underscore that a less 'unfavorable' presidential candidate might well have swung the presidency to the Republican's this year.
Long way to go. Both the Senate races and residential race might change.
If you really want to know where each party thinks they can win then you look at ad buys by the national senate committees.
Dems are only buying in one state they are defending and that is Nevada. Which their internal polling tells them everything else is safe.
Republicans are not buying ads in Illinois or Wisconsin, so the NRC thinks they are going to loose those two races.
The NRC is also having to buy ad time in several races they didn't think were going to be competitive. Missouri, Iowa, Arizona, & North Carolina.
A lot of articles are out in the past couple days about Trump costing the Republicans the senate and possibly the house because a % of people will not come out and vote for a guy who is going to loose. So a close race within 2 points could swing to the democrats.
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, and Florida, plus Nevada.
Not sure whether it's pro-Rubio or something very negative has happened to the Murphy campaign.
About Murphy: The Democratic primary is late August. Murphy's opponent in the D primary did major mudslinging against Murphy. Although Murphy is still likely to win the D primary, he got tarnished a bit from the ads. Also Beruff, the R running against Rubio has done mudslinging against Murphy on the same issue(with help from the governor - it's related to an email announcment). Still there are lots of people in FL that never heard of Murphy. Now some of them only heard the mudslinging ads.
Link to the mudslinging issue: http://www.politico.com/states/flori...e-bloom-103813
Since the primary isn't over yet, the DNC hasn't yet spent any money on behalf of Murphy. They will need to wait until he is the candidate for the Democrats first.
I hope Murphy wins. I am voting for him. Rubio never cared about Floridians even when in-office. He always was a career ladder climber and in the pocket of his major contributors. Now he's got name recognition over all the others running for his senate seat. Too bad if he wins because he will again be a ladder climber and will ignore Floridians.
Florida re-elected R Rick Scott for governor even when he had terrible approval ratings for his first term. I think he was the worst rated governor (approval ratings) of all 50 states for a long time and he was re-elected.
About Murphy: The Democratic primary is late August. Murphy's opponent in the D primary did major mudslinging against Murphy. Although Murphy is still likely to win the D primary, he got tarnished a bit from the ads. Also Beruff, the R running against Rubio has done mudslinging against Murphy(with help from the governor - it's related to an email announcent). Still there are lots of people in FL that never heard of Murphy. Now some of them only heard the mudslinging ads.
Since the primary isn't over yet, the DNC hasn't yet spent any money on behalf of Murphy. They will need to wait until he is the candidate for the Democrats first.
I hope Murphy wins. I am voting for him. Rubio never cared about Floridians even when in-office. He always was a career ladder climber and in the pocket of his major contributors. Now he's got name recognition over all the others running for his senate seat. Too bad if he wins because he will again be a ladder climber and will ignore Floridians.
Florida re-elected R Rick Scott for governor even when he had terrible approval ratings for his first term. I think he was the worst rated governor (approval ratings) of all 50 states for a long time and he was re-elected.
Thanks for the Florida insight, sware.
From the Cod reference, I thought you might be from Massachusetts, "the home of the bean and the cod, where the Lodges only speak to the Lowells, and the Lowells only speak to God", or something like that.
About Murphy: The Democratic primary is late August. Murphy's opponent in the D primary did major mudslinging against Murphy. Although Murphy is still likely to win the D primary, he got tarnished a bit from the ads. Also Beruff, the R running against Rubio has done mudslinging against Murphy on the same issue(with help from the governor - it's related to an email announcment). Still there are lots of people in FL that never heard of Murphy. Now some of them only heard the mudslinging ads.
Link to the mudslinging issue: Murphy: Emails about algae center delay are misleading
Since the primary isn't over yet, the DNC hasn't yet spent any money on behalf of Murphy. They will need to wait until he is the candidate for the Democrats first.
I hope Murphy wins. I am voting for him. Rubio never cared about Floridians even when in-office. He always was a career ladder climber and in the pocket of his major contributors. Now he's got name recognition over all the others running for his senate seat. Too bad if he wins because he will again be a ladder climber and will ignore Floridians.
Florida re-elected R Rick Scott for governor even when he had terrible approval ratings for his first term. I think he was the worst rated governor (approval ratings) of all 50 states for a long time and he was re-elected.
As for lousy or crazy politicians, in my state we have The Turtle, Randy and bug eyed Matt Bevin, so we have our crosses to bear too.
I picked the emoticon closest to "The Scream". Somehow it seemed appropriate.
It would be interesting to see the splits in the Hispanic vote between voting for Hillary and Rubio. The biggest takeaway I have on the Senate race is that Murphy is tanking. What was a winnable race without Rubio is now a lost cause with him in the race. Not sure whether it's pro-Rubio or something very negative has happened to the Murphy campaign.
Murphy was a hard-core Republican who donated millions to conservative causes before switching parties to run for Congress as a Democrat though. His well-heeled father then donated a few hundred thousand to the DNC for extra goodwill. In Congress, Murphy has continued his groveling to Wall Street.
The only guy with any care for the 99% in that race is Alan Grayson of course, and he is getting viciously attacked to prevent him from becoming a fighter for the 99% in the Senate. The latest is that he is a wife beater. Who knows what other dirt they will throw at him to ensure the donor class can continue to laugh at the 99%.
From the Cod reference, I thought you might be from Massachusetts, "the home of the bean and the cod, where the Lodges only speak to the Lowells, and the Lowells only speak to God", or something like that.
Correction
- "And this is good old Boston, The home of the bean and the cod, Where the Lowells talk only to Cabots, And the Cabots talk only to God."
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