Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Trump has secured about 150 electoral votes and Hillary 220. That seems like a huge difference until you consider that there are over 170 up for grabs. Assuming they split those equally, that gets Trump to 230ish, more than McLame or Mitt won. I could see a situation where Trump gets half those plus more (Some polls have him up in Oregon). Remember that this is the largest Republican turnout in any primary. The polls have him losing in Michigan, but in the primaries there were more Republicans than Democrats who voted in Michigan, for the first time in many election cycles.
Does this debunk the theory that Republicans need to move to the center to win? Heck, I'm of the opinion that someone like Ron Paul would've beat Hillary in a landslide. Weakest Demodratic candidate ever.
Obama beat Romney by 3.8% of the popular vote and a much greater margin of EC votes. Hillary leads in the RCP poll average right now at 2.7%. Yes the EC determines who wins but I don't think either candidate would win if they lost the popular vote by more than 2%. SO right now, Trump realistically would lose the EC by a fairy hefty margin. I do think Trump voters are more motivated than Hillary voters which might make up some of that. To me, Trump has to get within 1% of the popular vote average in the RCP poll averages to be in a better than even position than Hillary due to more enthusiastic supporters and the way the EC works to the advantage of the winner of most of the smaller population states (which is how George Bush won the 2000 election despite less popular votes).
With the debates coming up, Trump now starting to put some money into the race, and with Hillary seeming to be unhealthy and deserving jail and the Wikileaks information that will soon be coming out, I would say Trump has at least an even chance of winning in November.
Trump has secured about 150 electoral votes and Hillary 220. That seems like a huge difference until you consider that there are over 170 up for grabs. Assuming they split those equally, that gets Trump to 230ish, more than McLame or Mitt won. I could see a situation where Trump gets half those plus more (Some polls have him up in Oregon). Remember that this is the largest Republican turnout in any primary. The polls have him losing in Michigan, but in the primaries there were more Republicans than Democrats who voted in Michigan, for the first time in many election cycles.
Does this debunk the theory that Republicans need to move to the center to win? Heck, I'm of the opinion that someone like Ron Paul would've beat Hillary in a landslide. Weakest Demodratic candidate ever.
1. Thank you for conceding that Trump will lose. By a lot.
2. Beating McCain or Romney in EC count . . . . . oh, that's real hard.
3. Huh, you just said Trump would lose by a lot . . . . . seems like the party has to move to the middle, but what do I know. . . . it's real hard not being the "stupid party" per Governor Jindal (GOP-LA).
4. Ron Paul? Gary Johnson has a better chance, and Gary is getting exactly 0 EV.
5. Yes, Hillary might very well be the weakest Democratic candidate ever. But accordingly to your post, she is winning by a landslide. Let's think what that means.
He definately has momentum but I still see no path for him.
Although it is interstinf that he is making New Jersey close.
Nah, NJ is safe for Clinton. You are probably talking about the Emerson Polls but did you know that they only conduct landline surveys (most polls do a combination of landline and cell)? A lot of observers have attributed their unusual poll numbers to that, since most young people don't have landline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom1944
IMHO it comes down to in order
Florida
Ohio
NC
Nevada
Iowa
If Hillary wins either Florida or Ohio she has a better than even chance to win. Things could change if Pennsylvania and Virginia start to get closer.
If Trump can't win PA, VA and NH, he is done . . . . Clinton would get 273, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
Voters need to show up. There is so much at stake this election and we are at a serious fork in the road to the future.
Despite the lies, the years of scandals, the upcoming WIKI leaks bombshells, the ongoing investigations, the corruption and Hillary's questionable health it is still her election to lose.
That says alot about how gullible and uncaring people are when it comes to politicians and morals/values or it shows just how much they hate Trump.
The more people I speak with the more are getting behind Trump. They see a bleak future with Hillary.
Trump voters NEED TO SHOW UP ON ELECTION DAY. Nothing is in the bag yet.
Despite the lies, the years of scandals, the upcoming WIKI leaks bombshells, the ongoing investigations, the corruption and Hillary's questionable health it is still her election to lose.
That speaks in volume about Trump, no?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cape Cod Todd
That says alot about how gullible and uncaring people are when it comes to politicians and morals/values or it shows just how much they hate Trump.
You mean Trump has morals/values?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cape Cod Todd
The more people I speak with the more are getting behind Trump. They see a bleak future with Hillary.
Trump voters NEED TO SHOW UP ON ELECTION DAY. Nothing is in the bag yet.
I encourage you to continue talking to the good people of Cape Cod. Vote, vote, vote in Massachusetts!!!! Don't talk to folks in swing states, though.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
