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Clinton is +10 in 2 recent VA polls -taken after the FBI announcement. ....
I don't think people paid much mind to the FBI announcement. It was vague as to what happened.
But interest skyrocketed once it became know the emails were found on Anthony Wiener's laptop in the course of a pedophile investigation of Wiener being conducted by the NYPD.
Probably going to take another polling cycle for the ramifications of that to be known.
I tend to agree. The Winthrop poll of Clinton +5 from today is probably closer to the mark. The race is definitely tightening, but I'm not sure we're seeing an overall Trump wave building. I would guess we're looking at a Hillary win with a national vote margin of something like Obama 2012 or lower; maybe 2-3%. The electoral college is going to be closer than 2012 though.
5-6 points sounds about right. I don't forsee it being more than that.
I don't think people paid much mind to the FBI announcement. It was vague as to what happened.
But interest skyrocketed once it became know the emails were found on Anthony Wiener's laptop in the course of a pedophile investigation of Wiener being conducted by the NYPD.
Probably going to take another polling cycle for the ramifications of that to be known.
There are none. At this point peoples opinions are baked in. Anyway there are no more polling cycles. This is it.
Looks like there's a good chance the polls can be off...thus allowing Trump an easy win.
(Granted trying to prove a point about now by looking at 2012 (sample size = 1) probably isn't very scientific)
If the polls are off as they were in 2012, then it will be off in Clinton's direction, not Trump's.
The Philadelphia region, which is where the bulk of Democratic votes exist in the Commonwealth, is growing rapidly. Much of the rest of the state is declining in population. The Lehigh Valley, which has experienced some growth, is growing largely because of Puerto Rican migration from New York.
I'm not exactly sure where these extra hundreds of thousands of votes in Pennsylvania are supposed to come from. You need more people and the parts of Pennsylvania where Trump has the most appeal are literally dying.
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