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Yes they are saying that PA will go for Hillary because of Philly and Pittsburgh just like the last time. They like tax and spend government like Tom Wolf and Hillary. The rest of the state, middle class has no voice due to the high population of the cities and the eastern part of the U.S.
And this is what's scary. Many states are increasingly favoring only wealthy coastal urban residents and their interests.
Rural areas and small towns are going to have similar voting patterns across the country. The big difference between KY/TN and CT/NY is that the Southern states are much more rural and small town. Go into small town NY and you're probably going to have much more Trump support than Clinton support
The election is likely to come down to white college grads. Trump may turn out more white non-college voters than usual, but instead of being 2 out of every 3 voters like they were in Reagan's day, they're no more than 1 in 3 now. The percentage of votes cast by minorities nationally will probably continue to increase, because they're continuing to increase their share of total registrations due to demographic change. The problem for Trump is that the share of votes cast by his demographic area of strength, non-college whites, has fallen in every election since one since at least 1984, by an average of 3%. Nationally the trend every 4 years has been for white non-college to lose 3%, white college to gain 1% and total minority to increase 2%. An increase in turnout among white non-college is needed just to hold the same voting share as in 2012 because they make up a smaller share of registrations with each POTUS election.
The election will be decided in the suburbs of major cities, where white college grads are concentrated. Conservative blogger Ed Morrissey has written a book on how 7 key counties in 7 swing states may well decide the election.
You ignore a big factor-lack of interest returns in the inner city. a 2 cycle anomaly only changed that for his 2 campaigns.
Just as 2012 Romney used static projecting, Hillary and polls may be doing the same, by not right-sizing inner city turnout DOWN.
Like Gore, HRC is a non compelling nominee w/o a message of why to support her for positive reasons. Her polls reflect that. With a POTUS favorable a dozen points above her best polling %.Unless she convinces Americans there is a positive reason to vote for her (as opposed to ad nauseum anti GOP trash talk), as always undecided will break for the challenger or 3rd party.
You ignore a big factor-lack of interest returns in the inner city. a 2 cycle anomaly only changed that for his 2 campaigns.
Just as 2012 Romney used static projecting, Hillary and polls may be doing the same, by not right-sizing inner city turnout DOWN.
Like Gore, HRC is a non compelling nominee w/o a message of why to support her for positive reasons. Her polls reflect that. With a POTUS favorable a dozen points above her best polling %.Unless she convinces Americans there is a positive reason to vote for her (as opposed to ad nauseum anti GOP trash talk), as always undecided will break for the challenger or 3rd party.
No this is far different. HRC is running with tons of problems, horrid unfavorable = low turnout of all but rabid base, terrorism which reminds folks of her weakest point, a 4 way race where Stein may take critical votes from her (Nader swung Florida and 2000). Her poll numbers are putrid, the old rule of thumb incumbent party better be at 50. BHO was far closer in 2012 to it than she is, and unlike Mittens, Trump is not impersonating a corpse on the campaign trail.
Add in HRC should have never lost almost half the Dems to Bernie who is a weak candidate, who BHO in 08 and '12 would have thumped.
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