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If Hillary wins, the market will go up as Wall Street knows what to expect from her. If Trump wins there will be a sharp decline as he is unpredictible, so there will be uncertanity. The decline may be temporary, but I think it will happen. However, I won't change my positions either way; just like in 2008, ride out the storm.
I feel like it will. So the question is who would be best suited to help restructure and put the pieces back together? I could be wrong though, I thought for sure it was going to crash last year and it didn't. Then again the 08 happened right after the election too.
'08 happened well before the election. It's why the Republicans lost control of both the house and senate, as well as the presidency. '08 actually started in '07 with the first mortgage company bankruptcies. By this time in 2008, Lehman Brothers was already history and Wall Street was in full panic selling mode.
With the real debt ( amortized with entitlements) we are between 98 and 105 trillion in debt excluding
3 trillion in outstanding college loans and 3.5 trillion in personal debit ( credit). As we approach insolvency albeit bankruptcy it will not be a good time to become president . Hitler tossed a carrot to
his desperate easy targeted secular population and if you expect a savior for our economy to fix this
mess your caught up in a illusion. At 8-10 trillion the late Larry Burkett warned that we would be lucky
to pay the INTEREST!! I have no idea what the outcome or backlash will be ,but here is a little agit
for the never believer.......get a gun and call it the l" lucky one".
I do a whole lot more than typing doomsday scenario messages daily about the same old hat .
I am still waiting to hear from those who are hurting from all the things low rates have done for them , including stretching their income farther .
all the negatives you complain about like 2000 or 2008 were not from low rates . rates were 5 and 6% . they were all from easy credit . not the same issue
The past isn't always a predictor of the future, but it's all we have. Based on most metrics like forward P/E ratios, most people consider current market conditions as overvalued.
It's been a good run under the current administration, even though the world has seen a continuing evolution of terrorism and regional conflicts.
It would not surprise me to see a correction in the range of 30-40% in the next 4 years. The capital markets can easily weather such a large correction as they did in 2008.
Financial firms make money whether markets go up or down. Investors are the ones who pay the price, at least on paper. The ones who panic sell are the ones who end up holding the bag.
Greenspan: "I hope we all find a way out because this is too great a country to be undermined, by how should I say it, crazies,".
"Crazies" is just Greenspan's word for "deplorables". It certainly refers to Trump, but as well to the wet-blanket TEA Party ideologues who have no idea how the global or any other economy actually works.
By the way, interest rates are low because inflationary expectations have been low. If you want to see rates increase, simply ask OPEC to crank the price of gasoline back up above $3.50 per gallon.
'08 happened well before the election. It's why the Republicans lost control of both the house and senate...
Democrats won the House and Senate in 2006. The Great Recession meanwhile started in December 2007 and we finally hit bottom and a recovery began in June 2009.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
'08 actually started in '07 with the first mortgage company bankruptcies.
It started when Wall Street's "private-label" securitizers couldn't keep from pouring paper they knew was destined to fail into secondary credit markets. That began in 2005 or so. By late 2006, the volume of bad paper waiting to clog up the works had exceeded system capacities to deal with it, and a credit-driven recession in some form had become all but inescapable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
By this time in 2008, Lehman Brothers was already history and Wall Street was in full panic selling mode.
Today -- September 21 -- is the eighth anniversary of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley being converted from investment banks to bank holding companies, leaving no major Wall Street investment bank any longer alive. The DOW had closed on Friday, September 19, at 11,388 on word of Bush agreeing to push TARP legislation forward.
When the market runs out of steam from a decade of low interest rates. What's next?
Quote:
Originally Posted by A1eutian
The past isn't always a predictor of the future, but it's all we have. Based on most metrics like forward P/E ratios, most people consider current market conditions as overvalued
The longer view, is that "the market has been running out of steam" thus far for the entire 21st century. Pick your pithy metaphor/epigram... We've lost our mojo, our "animal spirits", our optimism...
The longer view is that we've been in a malaise of economic uncertainty, stunted investment and low capital gains for far too long. We're overdue for a correction... upwards. The DOW is long overdue to reach 36,000, and to keep going upward.
What could forestall this ascendancy? Uncertainty. Doubt. Radicalism. Rapid and peremptory shifts in position. There are plenty of ways to curtail business investment. I worry that we're about to stumble into a morass of just such ways, and that the "long view" is insufficiently long.
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