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I feel like it will. So the question is who would be best suited to help restructure and put the pieces back together? I could be wrong though, I thought for sure it was going to crash last year and it didn't. Then again the 08 happened right after the election too.
Clinton wins - slight wobble, up/down meaningless
Drumpf wins - Dow down 1000+ on Nov 9
Only if Trump wins unexpectedly. If Trump starts running ahead in the polls the market will start falling. Market's setting up for a short term correction, but could easily grow into the levels they're at. Labor has to stay good, we need to avoid deflation and keep the world shocks to a minimum.
By the way, interest rates are low because inflationary expectations have been low. If you want to see rates increase, simply ask OPEC to crank the price of gasoline back up above $3.50 per gallon.
Interest rates are low because of a shrinkage of the economy and a permanent downshift in economic growth potential in the wake of major misallocation of resources in the mid-2000s, among other factors.
Inflation is a symptom, not a cause; this fixation on inflation helps only a little and for a little while. The real problems lie elsewhere.
For a time, from 2008 to 2014, I thought oil prices would act as a constraint on growth, but the past two years or so have shown that the structural problems are deeper.
Unfortunately, there is little or no consensus, deliberate or not, as to exactly what those structural problems are, and even less on what to do about it.
In any case, I agree with posters #4, #7, #8, and #11:
Clinton is the status quo, Trump is the wild card, but in either case the Congressional elections are just as, if not more, important, and there really is no consensus on major reform.
And that could actually be a good thing because chances are that any reform would go in the wrong direction (e.g. ACA).
Stocks are probably overvalued, so anything could trigger a correction: e.g. a wild card victory, a status-quo recession, a rise in policy rates, a massive change in the balance of power in Congress, one of the ongoing wars expands out of control, some black swan event.
Finally, I do not believe that our political system is failed.
People have failed.
So we look in the mirror and we see the consequences: among other things, two of the most distrusted, unqualified, disgusting presidential candidates in US history.
But the political and economic system are still robust (well, at least compared to the rest of the world), it is not too late with the right set of people and the right set of policies.
Obama has done more Trickle Down Economics than any president - including Reagan - via QE. QE has in fact propped up the stock market. It is a matter of time IMO, even though much of the QE money is still in the big banks hands.
Obama has done more Trickle Down Economics than any president - including Reagan - via QE. QE has in fact propped up the stock market. It is a matter of time IMO, even though much of the QE money is still in the big banks hands.
Agreed, but the alternative in this inherited situation was a series of banks about to go bust. Without QE we probably lose Fannie and Freddy, which underpin the entire retail banking sector. If that goes, so does the underpinnings of the property bubble. If land prices and rents go into full retreat, deflation is sure to follow....and then we have a depression.
However, when you have that much money supply sloshing around, those with access to it will have the best opportunity to get very wealthy. So the Fed faces a weird pickle of inflation in some pockets and deflation in others. To fix the issue, two things need to happen:
1. Congress and the Administration need to work towards balancing their budget.
2. The United States needs to eliminate its massive trade deficit.
Brexit didn't cause a long term down spiral as the wannabes had predicted.
Warren Buffet predicts the marker to go down but couldn't predict/ prevent his own one day loss of 1.4 billion due to him being tied to the hip of crooked Wells Fargo and Berkshire Hathaway being part of each company.
I just got an apology email fom one of Buffets brokers for his unethical agent handling.
Brexit didn't cause a long term down spiral as the wannabes had predicted..
Strange that you have information on the long-term effects so soon. Please post the link to the source of your information.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) chief economist Joe Grice "stressed that the figures seen so far were short-term indicators. "It hasn't fallen at the first fence but longer-term effects remain to be seen," he said.
"But the ONS warned that we have not yet had official figures for the service sector, which are due next week."
"The services sector accounts for more than three-quarters of the economy - the index of services for July - and is out on 30 September."
Allan Monks, an economist at JP Morgan, said the Bank's report pointed to a "clearer Brexit impact ahead". He said: "Readings on employment, and, particularly investment intentions, over the forthcoming year show a marked deterioration within service sector industries."
The pound has recovered some ground but remains well below pre-referendum levels. This will help with exports as long as current trade agreements are in place. Remains to be seen how this will work out over the long term once the UK officially exits the EU.
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