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"Why Is The Media Pretending To Know Who Early Voted?"
In each and every state, whether an individual has cast a ballot is a matter of public record, as is that individual's party affiliation. This has been the case since about forever. You must be a very new voter.
^^^ Thanks for the explanation. You really should not have to explain this to folks who are, reportedly, experienced voters, but thanks for doing so
Quote:
Originally Posted by marino760
There needs to be some uniformity with early voting. How early is too early, one month, two months. Why not letting people begin to vote as soon as the parties pick their nominees? It's a slippery slope and getting more slippery every 4 years. IMO, it needs to be limited to maybe one week before the election and that's it. Early voting makes voter fraud easier.
Aren't conservatives all about 'states rights'? Because it is up to each individual state.
Do tell me how 'early voting makes fraud easier'? I show up IN PERSON - with my ID and I vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jacqueg
I'm a D and I like early voting because it makes voting so easy.
And I suspect that's exactly why so many Rs don't like it. Because there are more Ds than Rs in this country. And when Ds turn out - we win.
Anyone with a job should like early voting. I voted this week-end; took me 15 minutes; and now I don't have to miss two hours of work tomorrow while I wait in line.
"Florida Democrats increased their lead over Republicans in casting pre-Election Day ballots to nearly 33,000 as of Sunday morning, but the sheer number of new voters and independents makes it tougher than ever for experts to say whether Hillary Clinton has a clear advantage over Donald Trump in the nation’s biggest battleground state. Of the record 6.1 million in-person early votes and absentee ballots cast, Democrats have an advantage over Republicans of only 0.5 percentage points, with each party casting roughly 39 percent of the ballots."
Independents have cast 21% (1.3 million) of the ballots in Florida, so far.
They don't count the votes until Election Day. All year long we've been hearing about Republicans voting for Clinton and Democrats voting for Trump so how do they know?
Also, the above is just Florida. What about states where you don't register by political party? There are 22 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin) where you don't register by party. How can they say who and how many are early voting?
I also want to know how they know how many, Hispanics for example, early voted. Did we have to give that info when we registered to vote? I don't remember.
The election boards ONLY KNOWS what party the voter is registered with.
The LSM Claims they ALL registered dems voted for Hillary.
I know a LOT of registered dems who voted for Trump and most were union members.
Oh please stop with the conspiracy theories. People are polled and surveyed after they vote.
The MSM uses these polls, just like they use the polls to determine who is ahead.
Others who know the states well, make determination by who 'turned out the vote'. So if Harry Reid and the Dems turned out those voters, it is safe to say they are voting Dem.
The Latino vote is surging--new voters and those who sat out other elections. I doubt anyone seriously believes that the Latino vote is surging this year in order to vote for Trump. So there is logic, common sense, history, polls to gauge how it is going.
Of course they could be wrong. But I bet if these post-voting indicators and polls showed Trump leading bigly there would be bold and cap headlines in the forum, not questions about how anyone knows this.
you are right, and for me, thinking my candidate was losing would be even more reason to get out and vote. I wish they would do away with so much early voting. As a friend at church said to me yesterday: It is called election day not election month. Unless a person has a reason to vote early, we should go back to the days when we voted on election day.
The people who vote early do have a reason to vote early. We aren't all retired, and we don't all have all day to stand around in lines waiting to vote.
Does your state have early voting? Then whether or not you've submitted your ballot is public record. A poll could target the list of people who have already voted to find out who you've voted for. And of course you could be polled as part of a regular poll that would ask whether you've already voted, and if so, who for. Or, if you've voted early in the past, you could be targeted on that basis.
There's actually lots of ways to get at this, but they all flow from the simple fact that whether you've submitted a ballot is public record, as is where you were living when you submitted that ballot. Those records are kept from the first time you ever voted. And that really shouldn't be news to you.
There are companies whose sole business is to keep track of you. Some of them for retail marketing reasons, some of them for political reasons. And they know quite a bit about you, and can make a darn good guess as to exactly who you voted for, even if you haven't told them. But most likely, you have told them, at one point or another. And they can extrapolate your present and future behavior from that.
I don't think my early ballot is public record until it's counted which it is not counted before Election Day so they're guessing based on history. But if you say it's public record, tell me where I can look it up so I have the same info the people reporting the early voting stats have.
I also doubt exit polling of early in-person voters over multiple days.
And how do they know the crossover voters for either party? What the new voters who didn't vote in the primaries are going to do? Where Bernie Sanders ex-voters went? Who the NeverTrump people are? And how many of those people are early voting? See any predictions for the number of people who won't turn out to vote?
The rest of your answer excluding your condescending "And that really shouldn't be news to you," is believable except I can't see them doing it on all early voters because of the time and money involved and the unprecedented number of early votes cast this year. I'll check out the link. Thanks.
We'll know soon if the early voting conclusions were correct but I suspect the election results may not be known tomorrow if too many old models are being used to make predictions.
Exit polls? Phone surveys? I think they are conducted like most polls.
I also believe a state like FL tracks the number of people who voted by the party with which they are affiliated. I've read reports that say "XX number of people who received absentee ballots have returned them by mail" and so on. They aren't reporting the candidate each person voted for but the number of people who returned their ballots. It's a public record. In fact, I asked this question a few days ago when I was in Florida and one of my neighbors Googled me and was able to find out my date of birth and which elections I've voted in and by what method. I find it very invasive, but in today's world you can't pee without a camera watching you.
There are companies who aggregate all your purchasing records, Facebook post and what you Goolgle. They know what you want before you do. They know what you like and don't like. They also will sell that info to anybody with the means to buy it.
If a political party has that info, and who voted, they know who is winning.
What you fail to mention is that voter affiliation does not equal a vote for one candidate or another. Let's take a solid red state like Kentucky. Did you know the majority of people there are registered democrats, yet they cross party lines and almost always vote for the Republican nominee for President.
Many swing states have a large majority by far of registered democrats but people vote for who they think will make the best President, not lock step along party lines.
If all you needed to do was count party affiliation, then no Republican would ever win the Presidency. We don't even need to have elections if that were the case. All they'd have to do is look at voter registration and decide by that who wins.
No one is saying that it does.
All that is being reported is how many Democrats and how many Republicans voted early.
As has been noted, party affiliation is public information.
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