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We see this kind of thing every election. I gauruntee that there is some sort of Texas Sharpshooter or confirmation bias going on in this "model." Hillary is going to win easily, and I hate her guts. I also hate Trump, so it is going to be a long day for me regardless.
Every track record comes to an end at some point. There's a pollster in Puerto Rico that has predicted the gubernatorial winner in every election since 1960 just by polling this one rural mountain town called San Sebastian. They are predicting the Democrat allied David Bernier will win ... except virtually every other pollster in existence has the Republican allied Ricardo Rossello with a 5-10 point lead over Bernier.
We'll see tomorrow night, I suspect alot of the old bellweather states/counties/towns/cities are going to be wrong. Ohio may vote for the losing presidential candidate ... and San Sebastian may vote for the losing Puerto Rican gubernatorial candidate. Tomorrow will be an interesting day ...
Date on that article is 10-19... And I think he has been quoted as saying this election cycle is like no other he has done...
So I think he thinks there is a lack of certainty in what his poll showed...
Ok ...I thought that was link to different pollster
Read the article
Part of his process. Is using primary votes...
I don't think that works when you have 17 candidates in the Republican Primary field
Heck, I voted for Trump because I registered as Republican for the primary to,vote for the least objectionable local Republican state legislature candidate and I certainly didn't vote for Trump for President...
There were many Democrats in my state of Texas who did that--crossed over to vote for Trump in the primary because we hate Ted Cruz...and we thought he was a joke of a candidate...
That was a mistake --because we forgot Will Roger's saying
You can never go,wrong underestimating the intelligence of the public...
I don't believe any of the polls, and most are nothing more than a way to get the sheeple to believe what the puppet masters wants them to.
Hence the reason so many people believe the most flawed, corrupt and dishonest candidate in our history will win easily.
Might it have to do with multiple polls saying Hillary is guaranteed to win by 12 or even 15 points at various times?
You bet it is, and even the talking heads go by such things. Yet as we have seen in other examples like Reagan vs. Carter, the polls can be wrong just a couple of days before the election. Heck the Brexit polls and even the bookies had it wrong the night before the election just a few short months ago.
So we shall see if a couple of these algorithms or predictors are right about Trump winning in about 24 hours from now.
This kind of stuff crops up every election. Some random dude nobody's heard of claims they've called every election right since forever and then predict the underdog candidate will win that year.
Looking at the site, he has no info on elections earlier than 2008, which he claims to have predicted. His 2008 prediction was off by 7.5 points. His 2008 democratic primary prediction was wrong. He has no documentation on what methods he's using to call elections.
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