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Romney won AZ by 12. Trump won by 3%. If Clinton had worked the state more, she had a shot. Dems continued to close the gap in state races and minimum wage won by a landslide. Once again, latino turnout lagged far behind non-latino. Same thing with the youngest of new voters. Apathy - lack of enthusiasm - low turnout. AZ is one of the younger states in the country in contrast to popular notions of it being full of retirees. It is becoming both even younger and more hispanic. I don't think that guarantees it will be Dem, though. Both reps and dems are failing miserably in attracting these newer voters, most of whom are registering as Indies. They are ripe for the picking.
Trump won Arizona by significantly less than Romney not because of changing demographics, but because there was a loud/vocal #NeverTrump movement among AZ Republicans. Many of these Republicans will come home in 2020. And no amount of extra campaigning in AZ by Hillary was going to make up the near 100,000 vote difference by which she lost. Democrats' problem in AZ is the same that it is in Georgia. While they have a relatively "high" ceiling (around 45-46% at times) that makes them appear competitive to the untrained eye, this is very deceptive as they don't do any better than that due to demographics not being in their favor. AZ promises to become friendlier to Democrat presidential nominees before Georgia does, but I don't see it becoming a true purple state for quite some time to come.
I've already pointed out the fact Trump improved upon Romney's performance in most states. Here are some other points that I would like to make that relate to this topic:
*The only historically red state that really worries me is Arizona. Out of all the states that Romney won (including North Carolina), it represented Trump's slimmest victory. (He won the state by 3.57%.) I would not be shocked to see it turn Democratic in the next cycle or two. However, Georgia and Texas really do not concern me. Unlike Arizona, both Georgia and Texas still possess a lot of traditional elements of Southern culture, and that will make it hard for a liberal Democrat to win in those places.
*There were several states that Trump lost--namely Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and (to a lesser extent) Nevada--which are nonetheless trending to the Republicans. What's interesting is that Trump would still have been elected president if he lost AZ and even TX yet carried ME, NH, MN, & NV.
*Demographics really don't explain why Trump did better in Romney in some states while he did worse in others. Trump did indeed do worse than Romney in AZ, CA, GA, and TX. However, Trump improved upon Romney's performance in many other states that have heavy minority populations, such as CO, FL, NC, NJ, NM, NV, NY, and PA. Geography, rather than demographics, seems to have influenced which states trended Republican or Democratic. While there are notable exceptions (such as CO, NV, OR, and VA), the states located to the east of Texas trended Republican, while the states in the western half of the country trended Democratic (excluding the sparsely populated states of the Plains and Mountain regions).
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