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View Poll Results: Will Trump win by larger amount than Reagan did in 1984?
Yes 17 42.50%
No 23 57.50%
Voters: 40. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-24-2016, 03:53 PM
 
4,176 posts, read 6,351,295 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RacSoc View Post
If Trump does what he says and brings jobs back,closes down the border,incomes skyrocket etc will he eclipse Reagan's landslide win in 1984?

Also this is ASSUMING Trump wins in 2020.

I personally think he will. As of now the democrats are shattered into pieces,the leading candidate for the DNC is a Muslim with some comments he's made that will haunt the democrats. They have NO ONE that is obviously popular according to a poll I just saw so yeah I think he takes at least takes 47 states with a lot of hard work to take California,New York and Illinois.
Not even close. In the worst case scenario for the Dems, they have many states in the bag: CA; NY; NJ; MD; WA; MA; IL; OR; and others. These alone put them well into the 150+ EV category, exceeding Mondale by a factor of more than 10:1.

 
Old 12-24-2016, 03:57 PM
 
Location: Cape Cod
24,704 posts, read 17,438,727 times
Reputation: 36035
I think it is funny how people are looking to 2020 and making predictions that Trump will have another term before he has even been sworn into office.

The same goes for the Loud Left who are already calling for Trumps impeachment over things he hasn't done.

If Trump can do half the things he talked about on the campaign trail he will be a successful President but it is going to be an uphill battle for him working with the establishment and with the media trashing him at every chance they get.

He could do as much for America as George Washington did and if the press is not behind him the people will see him as a failure.
 
Old 12-24-2016, 04:11 PM
 
Location: Sector 001
15,949 posts, read 12,351,216 times
Reputation: 16126
Probably not but too early to tell. I'd bet a million dollars on no though.
 
Old 12-24-2016, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Florida
76,971 posts, read 47,804,589 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
No one will ever match Reagan 1984.
True. His victory was a landslide. Trump thinks his win was a landslide, but it was actually a narrow win in historical standards. I doubt he will win at all in 2020, if he is even a candidate then.
 
Old 12-24-2016, 04:45 PM
 
16,955 posts, read 16,809,600 times
Reputation: 10408
Quote:
Originally Posted by BOS2IAD View Post
In '72, McGovern also won DC.

I voted for the first time that year and I voted in MA. When Watergate happened, bumper stickers showed up that said "Don't blame me. I'm from Massachusetts".

When I was a kid, I lived in Whittier Cali. Someone would ask me where I was from and I would say, "I am from Whittier--where Nixon grew up, but that's not my fault."
 
Old 12-24-2016, 04:52 PM
 
Location: CT
3,440 posts, read 2,539,366 times
Reputation: 4639
This is too funny, he hasn't taken office yet, he has no political record to base any guesses on, we have no idea of his relationship with congress, he's backed off the hard line, and our only hint at his foreign policy comes from Twitter. He could be the best POTUS we've seen in recent history or he could be the worst, and never make it to the end. That's not my opinion, that comes from his buddy Newt.
 
Old 12-24-2016, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,795 posts, read 19,438,455 times
Reputation: 26584
I would have thought it impossible to top Reagan's 49 state win but if the Dems double down on stupid as they currently are doing and Trump's Presidency is a resounding success, then he could.
 
Old 12-24-2016, 06:41 PM
 
52,430 posts, read 26,756,628 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
I would have thought it impossible to top Reagan's 49 state win but if the Dems double down on stupid as they currently are doing and Trump's Presidency is a resounding success, then he could.
This.

It's already happened to Democrats twice in the last 45 years. 1972 & 1984.

At the moment, I don't know of any Democrat who can match even Hillary's loss. The party is in a shambles.
 
Old 12-24-2016, 06:46 PM
 
Location: One of the 13 original colonies.
10,190 posts, read 7,978,978 times
Reputation: 8119
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
No one will ever match Reagan 1984.

I agree!
 
Old 12-24-2016, 10:09 PM
 
491 posts, read 321,262 times
Reputation: 219
For much of the 20th century, it was possible for presidential candidates to win in blowout margins. Beginning in the 1990's, however, our politics became much more polarized, and by the time the 2000 election rolled around, only about 10% of the electorate was truly persuadable by either political party. Nowadays, that figure is at most 5%.

In 1996 (as in 1984), we were in an era of peace and prosperity, yet Bill Clinton's margin of victory over Bob Dole (379 EVs to 159 EVs) was far smaller than was Ronald Reagan's victory over Walter Mondale (525 EVs to 13 EVs). And in the modern political era, it would be highly unlikely for a presidential nominee to even perform as poorly as Dole did in 1996. While anything is possible, we should expect relatively close elections most of the time. IMO, the worst-case scenario for any party (in the modern era) is likely to be a repeat of the 2008 result of 365 EVs for Barack Obama to 173 EVs for John McCain. Note that in order to arrive at such a lopsided result (by 21st Century standards), the opposition party had two huge things breaking their way: (1) an incumbent president whose popularity was in the toilet and (2) a stock market crash that occurred two months prior to Election Day.
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