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Now POTUS elections are decided state by state, but unless voting patterns radically change, they are likely to continue to break down by demographic group.
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Except you failed to account for what should worry you. The deciding turf is the basis for Reagan Dems, and those states also happen to be less demographically "diverse" in a manner benefitting the Dems (We need a hyphen before American party). In short, DT won a region that I was hoping the GOP would go after hard for decades. I was amongst the first to post, and point out to you, DT's win would come via the Rust Belt. Anti-NAFTA, disproportionately blue collar, low Latino %, mostly low population cities which cannot single-handedly carry a state. In addition, that white vote dropped just 1% this year, while your prior links showed a 2-3% drop was projected.
Add in, there are no candidates for the Dems in 2020 or beyond who can light a fire amongst US independents. That is a direct result of losing a massive quantity of Congressional seats, Senators, governors, a/k/a "the bench".
The most difficult time to break the Blue Wall is the first one.
And if DT adds infrastructure spending in the cities, employing a massive amount of minorities, the Dems will lose a sizeable % of them for decades to come.
Last edited by BobNJ1960; 01-09-2017 at 07:08 PM..
The decline in the white vote precedes Barack Obama by 28 years. The white percentage is dropping because of a lack of replacement of dying white voters, not because of a momentary spike in black turnout caused by Barack Obama.
In 36 years % of voters that were white non-college has halved
GOP though still depends disproportionately on that vote
Now POTUS elections are decided state by state, but unless voting patterns radically change, they are likely to continue to break down by demographic group.
This thread was started by someone who seems to be under the illusion that demographically this is still 1980. It's not. We are a different country and with the passage of time the combined influence of white non-college voters is going to continue to fall. That cake has already been baked. The R's may well prevail in the future, but they're going to have to get more votes from white college and minority voters.
You can't depend on getting a majority of your votes from the one segment that is fading fast and expect long term success.
So in other words, you're under the belief that simply waiting for the U.S. to get less white is what will propel Democrats for decades to come? As a Republican, PLEASE keep using that strategy. It has worked out so well for you.
The decline in the number of white non-college-educated voters from 1980 to the present cited by somebody here is largely a result of more people going to college.
That doesn't mean they all end up being lawyers, doctors, high level executives, etc.
There is only room for so many "chiefs" -- the rest have to be "Indians" regardless of their education.
In other words, using college as a metric is misleading.
And what does "college educated" mean?
A few courses? Two year degree? B.A.?
What is a college education nowadays?
It used to require taking college level courses in literature, philosophy, history, math, science and foreign language.
You can get a degree now without doing any of that -- or by doing only a fraction of it.
The decline in the white vote precedes Barack Obama by 28 years. The white percentage is dropping because of a lack of replacement of dying white voters, not because of a momentary spike in black turnout caused by Barack Obama.
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Now POTUS elections are decided state by state, but unless voting patterns radically change, they are likely to continue to break down by demographic group.
This thread was started by someone who seems to be under the illusion that demographically this is still 1980. It's not. We are a different country and with the passage of time the combined influence of white non-college voters is going to continue to fall. That cake has already been baked. The R's may well prevail in the future, but they're going to have to get more votes from white college and minority voters.
You can't depend on getting a majority of your votes from the one segment that is fading fast and expect long term success.
I would have hoped that you would have realized that every single theory you posted here over the past 1.5 years about this election and how demographics would affect it, was proven 100% absolutely wrong.
Oh and yeah, Hillary lost even though you posted endless statistics that said otherwise.
Well, if the above makes you feel better about why she lost go for it.
However, if the Dem leadership refuses to honestly look at why they have been doing poorly in recent elections they'll continue to have trouble.
With regards to Clinton: Few candidates have ever run a worse campaign than Hillary. She had unlimited funds and ran against an opponent the MSM openly despised. Yet, still couldn't close the deal.
Yessir. She was so lousy, she lost an election so rigged, we'll be talking about it, and it will be stored up the the History Tweets of the Cyber-Smithsonian.
Stop being sexists/so insensitive people! There are at least 58 choices of gender options of candidates to choose from now. Just judging by color/race alone is so yesterday.
Personally I think this number is low and there are at least 100's/if not 1000's of gender options for the democrats to choose from to show they are all so inclusive.
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