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Do you think "Women, blacks, and Hispanics" will vote again'st Trump in 2020 considering they'll find out he isn't a racist and there won't be a woman candidate running against him?
Hopefully a woman running or not, will not influence other women to vote based on gender. Many were smart enough this time around, with only the brain dead voting for Hillary just because she was a woman.
As to a coalition of those groups, it will largely depend on how Trump does in the next 4 years. Hard core leftists/socialist/communists will vote against him no matter what. But if he does half way decently, he will be tough to beat.
Do you think "Women, blacks, and Hispanics" will vote again'st Trump in 2020 considering they'll find out he isn't a racist and there won't be a woman candidate running against him?
The premise of your poll assumes that Donald Trump will run for the highest office again in 2020.
Last edited by Ibginnie; 01-20-2017 at 10:26 PM..
Reason: off topic
Things are much more nuanced. While Romney did better than Trump with whites overall, Trump did better than Romney with whites in states where it mattered (minorities certainly didn't carry him to victory . . . at least not in the sense of voting for him in greater numbers. If anything, their not voting in 2012 numbers helped him out in states like PA, WI, and MI). Romney won a record or near record percentage of the white vote. But, unfortunately for him, this increase came from reliably red states, hence all time winning margins for the GOP nominee in states like TN and others in the region.
If you discount 1/3 of the Hispanic vote, then yes, minorities didn't carry Trump to victory. Also the black vote for Trump was significantly higher than for Romney. As to turnout in the blue wall states Hillary lost, well yeah, campaign in them. She spent more in Texas and Arizona than in the blue wall states. She was tossing cash with no hope of winning. Trumps last stop was 1 AM on election day in a blue wall state, he campaigned relentlessly. Flipping 3 largish blue states, taking all the swing states, is sort of amazing.
An odd demographic on exit polls at real clear politics, shows 13% of black men and 4% of black women voted for Trump. The average was 9%, but this is the greatest disparity of any subgroup Real Clear Politics tracked. Young black men, voted with older black men, Hillary did best with black men aged 30-44. Nearly 1/3 of Hispanics voted for Trump. Trump did not do as well with whites as Romney, it was minorities that carried him to victory.
The Demographics indicate a change in black men, and a change in Hispanic voters. These are groups which Democrats count on to win.
Worse, the recounts did show fraud, but it only found fraud in Detroit favoring Democrats. If Fraud was eliminated in Detroit, it is possible Trumps victory would have been greater with minorities. In California, a person on reddit.com was able to get his dog registered to vote and even mailed an absentee ballot. In the 38 states with any form of ID requirement, Trump did better than expected.
For the most party Hillary won the popular vote mostly due to California, and maybe partially due to New York State.
Nice try. White women (mostly educated and middle class) carried trump to victory. 53% of them. Not Latinos.
Do you think "Women, blacks, and Hispanics" will vote again'st Trump in 2020 considering they'll find out he isn't a racist and there won't be a woman candidate running against him?
that depends on what happens over the next four years, and how well off they are then.
If you discount 1/3 of the Hispanic vote, then yes, minorities didn't carry Trump to victory. Also the black vote for Trump was significantly higher than for Romney. As to turnout in the blue wall states Hillary lost, well yeah, campaign in them. She spent more in Texas and Arizona than in the blue wall states. She was tossing cash with no hope of winning. Trumps last stop was 1 AM on election day in a blue wall state, he campaigned relentlessly. Flipping 3 largish blue states, taking all the swing states, is sort of amazing.
In the states that truly made a difference for Trump (i.e. the "shockers" of WI, MI, and PA), not only is the Hispanic percentage of the overall voter pool relatively small, but Trump generally won less than 28% (he didn't quite win a third) of the Hispanic vote. Note, Trump's 28% of the Hispanic vote is better than Romney's 27% (Hillary Clinton won Latino vote but fell below 2012 support for Obama | Pew Research Center), but its not significantly better. What is a shocker to many is that he improved on Romney at all, given some of the campaign rhetoric. Also, Trump did better than Romney among black voters (his percentages among black voters were significantly lower in the three aforementioned states than they were for Trump nationwide), let's be clear that black voter turnout dropped significantly from 2012. Simply put, if black voters came out in the same margins as the same numbers as they did in 2012 (and Trump still won the same percentage as he did among blacks in November), he still would've lost those three states to Clinton. For these reasons, I won't say that Trump won due to increased support among black and Latino voters.
Where Trump was truly successful was in running up margins to historic levels among white voters in key areas of the states listed above. This led to Trump flipping man, many countries (or otherwise increasing his margin of victory) in those states. In states where Latinos truly make a difference in the vote count (i.e. in FL, CO, CA, etc.), Trump's dip or increase in his Latino voter share ultimately were offset by his margins among non-Hispanic white voters. This is true whether or not he won a state.
Really, white people voted for trump. As simple as that.
I agree. While Trump's improved performance among black/Hispanic voters was impressive, that certainly didn't carry him to victory.
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