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I explained my reasoning. Feel free to try and dispute it.
I don't need to dispute the fact that you don't have the ability to predict a "what if" scenario with any real level of certainty, especially considering the fact that plenty of "experts" got the whole thing wrong with treasure troves of data and analysis.
I don't need to dispute the fact that you don't have the ability to predict a "what if" scenario with any real level of certainty, especially considering the fact that plenty of "experts" got the whole thing wrong with treasure troves of data and analysis.
They had no desire to get it right. I noted before the elections that I believed Trump had a good chance at winning Michigan and Pennsylvania and explained why.
Sanders and HRC would have fared equally in Philly. That wasn't a dropoff due to NAFTA, nor deplorables, but Obama created a once in our lives increase in turnout. Not transferable.
So I do not see Sanders winning Pa, as he would still get crushed in western, social values led, Pa. Just like HRC.
They had no desire to get it right. I noted before the elections that I believed Trump had a good chance at winning Michigan and Pennsylvania and explained why.
While I may somewhat agree with that since many seemed to be Hillary cheerleaders, it dosen't increase your ability to be right about knowing Sanders would win. Unfortunately (and not because I wanted him to win) he would have been subject to a Trump nickname like Dopey Bernie, plus Sanders was pretty naive during the debates with Clinton, so who knows what traps he would have either been lured into, or just stumbled into inadvertently. These two factors plus a bunch of other unknowns make your prediction no more accurate than a coin flip would have been.
Sanders would have won. Just as the (D)'s refuse to understand that they lost for one reason, Hillary, and they seem intent on making the same mistakes, others refuse to understand that Sanders would have very likely won if he had been the candidate.
Sanders does NOT lost Wisconsin or Michigan. He campaigns hard in Pennsylvania unlike Hillary. He did not have the baggage Hillary had in Philadelphia.
Maybe he doesn't get a 4 million vote advantage in California but he would have won it.
I voted for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Primary. I wanted him to win. Instead we Hilary Clinton. I thought "fine. I will vote for anyone on the Republican side as long as it isn't Donald Trump". Surprise. Donald Trump won the Republican Primary. At that point, I said "forget it. I'm going 3rd party".
We got stuck with two of the worst candidates on the D and R sides. Why we got them, I don't know.
Sanders and HRC would have fared equally in Philly. That wasn't a dropoff due to NAFTA, nor deplorables, but Obama created a once in our lives increase in turnout. Not transferable.
So I do not see Sanders winning Pa, as he would still get crushed in western, social values led, Pa. Just like HRC.
He would. He would have done far better in the East. Hillary didn't lose Philly because of Nafta. She lost it because of Obama's policies that enriched the 1% over the middle and lower classes. Q.E. for one. Trying to enact another trade agreement that would have only benefitted Wall Street. Sanders would have campaigned there relentlessly.
While I may somewhat agree with that since many seemed to be Hillary cheerleaders, it dosen't increase your ability to be right about knowing Sanders would win. Unfortunately (and not because I wanted him to win) he would have been subject to a Trump nickname like Dopey Bernie, plus Sanders was pretty naive during the debates with Clinton, so who knows what traps he would have either been lured into, or just stumbled into inadvertently. These two factors plus a bunch of other unknowns make your prediction no more accurate than a coin flip would have been.
Sanders support did not care about name calling. Sanders would have talked specifics in the debate. Things that were drawing huge crowds to hear.
I voted for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Primary. I wanted him to win. Instead we Hilary Clinton. I thought "fine. I will vote for anyone on the Republican side as long as it isn't Donald Trump". Surprise. Donald Trump won the Republican Primary. At that point, I said "forget it. I'm going 3rd party".
We got stuck with two of the worst candidates on the D and R sides. Why we got them, I don't know.
I along with many others did the same. (though there is NO way I could ever vote for someone like Jeb or Christie.)
I along with many others did the same. (though there is NO way I could ever vote for someone like Jeb or Christie.)
As time goes on, I've become more of an Independent. I'm registered as a Democrat(since 2004, and I ironically voted for a Republican, the only time I voted for a Republican). However, I've become more Independent. I voted for Gary Johnson. I felt like some of what he stood for was more in line with me. I believe marijuana should be legalized. I feel that Stop and Frisk violates my Constitutional rights.
And some of the things Trump has said turned me off.
-I lost respect for him when he did that "I like soldiers who weren't captured" comment. That is a slap in the face to veterans. I get that John McCain did something stupid to get himself captured. However, Trump has no room to talk. He tried dodging the draft several times. Saying what he said to someone who actually served this country under those circumstances is absolutely disrespectful.
-President Trump tweeted "Our great African American President hasn't exactly had a positive impact on the thugs who are so happily and openly destroying Baltimore!". I get that people don't like the rioting. However, President Trump went after former President Obama, and brought his race into it. Trump went racial, and did it in such a way as to say "you're Black, why don't you do something about it"?
-Trump retweeted a Neo-Nazi's falsified statistics on Black crime and White genocide. And then Trump said "I don't check my sources".
-Trump called the Pope a pawn of the Mexican government
-There is also Trump's lewd comments about women.
-President Trump has said he would like to see a national stop and frisk policy implemented. I know where that will go. Racial profiling nationwide.
-And then there is President Trump's feigned attempts at getting the Black vote. The "vote for me what do you have to lose" comment was kind of comical. When he said this, he wasn't address a crowd of African-Americans in Milwaukee. He was in West Bend, WI in with a majority White crowd. And then in Redding,CA, he singles out a Black person nearby and screams "there goes my African-American over there". Stupid stuff.
How Trump could be so crass, and still get the Presidency is beyond me. Unless there are some people that either overlook his crassness, or relate to his crass ways.
He would. He would have done far better in the East. Hillary didn't lose Philly because of Nafta. She lost it because of Obama's policies that enriched the 1% over the middle and lower classes. Q.E. for one. Trying to enact another trade agreement that would have only benefitted Wall Street. Sanders would have campaigned there relentlessly.
Sanders would have done no better than HRC, who did as well as Kerry and Gore. Philly was an area HRC did not dramatically underperform DNC norms in. One of the few..LOL. We know precisely why Philly turnout spiked for BO. Its not repeatable. Sanders does not create that special pull.
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