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Only time will tell, but Donald Trump has not added to his base since his election and he is now losing Independents by double digits. If that continues he will not be re-elected in 2020 and will be a drag on R congressional candidates in 2018.
According to ABC political analyst Jonathan Karl this morning on “This Week”, Republican political operatives are conceding privately that unless something radically changes, the Republicans are likely to lose the House, with the fight likely between scenarios where the Democrats barely take control with 25 or so seats gained and a scenario where the Republicans lose 35 or more seats in a bloodbath. Currently there are 31 Republican House incumbents that have announced that they are not running in 2018. That’s all on Donald Trump. It’s what happens when a wave is sensed to be forming for the other side. Your incumbents decide not to run for re-election and you have a hard time recruiting good candidates. That’s what’s playing out now.
Attached is an article by Amy Walter of Cook Political Report. In 2016, Trump won Independents nationally by 4%. Currently, Trump is at about -20% with Independents and on the generic ballot Independents are favoring D’s by low double digits. Looking at the results of past off-year elections, the level of support of Independents for the Presidential Party congressional candidates is usually within 4% of the Independent approval rate for the President, and Trump's ratings with Independents is currently in the toilet. Independents are the critical battleground for both 2018 and 2020 and Trump is currently driving the Republican brand in the ditch as far as Independents are concerned. Maybe tax cuts will turn it around, but on most issues Independents are not favoring the Trump agenda.
Only time will tell, but Donald Trump has not added to his base since his election and he is now losing Independents by double digits. If that continues he will not be re-elected in 2020 and will be a drag on R congressional candidates in 2018.
According to ABC political analyst Jonathan Karl this morning on “This Week”, Republican political operatives are conceding privately that unless something radically changes, the Republicans are likely to lose the House, with the fight likely between scenarios where the Democrats barely take control with 25 or so seats gained and a scenario where the Republicans lose 35 or more seats in a bloodbath. Currently there are 31 Republican House incumbents that have announced that they are not running in 2018. That’s all on Donald Trump. It’s what happens when a wave is sensed to be forming for the other side. Your incumbents decide not to run for re-election and you have a hard time recruiting good candidates. That’s what’s playing out now.
Attached is an article by Amy Walter of Cook Political Report. In 2016, Trump won Independents nationally by 4%. Currently, Trump is at about -20% with Independents and on the generic ballot Independents are favoring D’s by low double digits. Looking at the results of past off-year elections, the level of support of Independents for the Presidential Party congressional candidates is usually within 4% of the Independent approval rate for the President, and Trump's ratings with Independents is currently in the toilet. Independents are the critical battleground for both 2018 and 2020 and Trump is currently driving the Republican brand in the ditch as far as Independents are concerned. Maybe tax cuts will turn it around, but on most issues Independents are not favoring the Trump agenda.
It's a tradition that the party in the WH loses the midterm elections. Bill Clinton, W Bush and Obama (all 3 won re-election) so if the GOP loses the house that doesn't mean anything on Trump's chances for 2020.
Democrats lost lots of seats at the federal level, governorships and state legislative branches under Obama and he won re-election.
The rest of your "report" it's just wishful thinking....the same polling that gave Hillary Clinton 95% of winning the election last year.
It's a tradition that the party in the WH loses the midterm elections. Bill Clinton, W Bush and Obama (all 3 won re-election) so if the GOP loses the house that doesn't mean anything on Trump's chances for 2020.
Democrats lost lots of seats at the federal level, governorships and state legislative branches under Obama and he won re-election.
The rest of your "report" it's just wishful thinking....the same polling that gave Hillary Clinton 95% of winning the election last year.
I honestly think that unless the economy goes great, we are likely to see a one-term Trump. The question is how many Republicans and independents that "held their nose" and voted Trump in 2016 stick for 2020.
Maybe you will believe it if it's a Rasmussen poll?
"The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would opt for Winfrey, while 38% would choose Trump. But a sizable 14% are undecided."
I honestly think that unless the economy goes great, we are likely to see a one-term Trump. The question is how many Republicans and independents that "held their nose" and voted Trump in 2016 stick for 2020.
what are their choices? vote for a Democrat candidate hard left that will raise their taxes and give amnesty to millions of illegals and keep the border wide open?.......if the Trump tax cuts improve the economy, what will be the democrat excuse in 2020 be for voting against it?
Democrats need a platform in 2020 to go against Trump and being anti-Trump is not going to work.....it didn't work on W Bush in 2004 when the Democrats went full anti-Bush.
She'll win California and New York but would lose bad in the midwest and the south.
once she has to take a stance on taxes, immigration, healthcare, abortion, trade deals and foreign policy in details she will be done.
It's one thing to give her drive by opinions in her show or magazine or in front on her Hollywood crowd that worship her in whatever she says and it's another thing in taking a stance on complicated issues in details and being challenged.........she will not do it.
She'll win California and New York but would lose bad in the midwest and the south.
She'll win The West Coast and Northeast, but lose The Rocky Mountain West, Midwest, and South. The people in those regions don't want someone from Hollywood and another racist in office.
what are their choices? vote for a Democrat candidate hard left that will raise their taxes and give amnesty to millions of illegals and keep the border wide open?.......if the Trump tax cuts improve the economy, what will be the democrat excuse in 2020 be for voting against it?
Democrats need a platform in 2020 to go against Trump and being anti-Trump is not going to work.....it didn't work on W Bush in 2004 when the Democrats went full anti-Bush.
Here is the way the left will win:
Healthcare. Trump has continually torpedoed Obamacare time and time again, even when repeal-replace was going on. Yet any repeal-replace has failed to offered no bigger and better solution that the government will pay for. He campaigned on it.
Pro-business, anti-consumer legislation. The FCC removed Net Neutrality, which the public HATES so much the Senate had to be forced to have a vote to possibly reverse the FCC decision.
Identity Politics. Due to what we have seen in the first year of Trump, we could easily see him voted out by Republican women, Blacks who voted Trump and many voters who didn't vote. He has done little for them.
Trump's character is going to be used for sure. We are talking about a guy who couldn't tell the truth to save his own life. Even if he does, how do we know it? He'll contradict himself. There wouldn't be any reason to trust him.
Voter apathy. If Clinton don't run (and I don't see why she even would,) there was a HUGE portion of thhe voting populous that didn't vote, maybe they'll realize the stakes are too high to stay home in November 2020...
She'll win The West Coast and Northeast, but lose The Rocky Mountain West, Midwest, and South. The people in those regions don't want someone from Hollywood and another racist in office.
Yet they voted Trump and many think he'll have eight years in office and he has continually made racist comments during his campaign and term, let alone his civilian time...
Healthcare. Trump has continually torpedoed Obamacare time and time again, even when repeal-replace was going on. Yet any repeal-replace has failed to offered no bigger and better solution that the government will pay for. He campaigned on it.
Pro-business, anti-consumer legislation. The FCC removed Net Neutrality, which the public HATES so much the Senate had to be forced to have a vote to possibly reverse the FCC decision.
Identity Politics. Due to what we have seen in the first year of Trump, we could easily see him voted out by Republican women, Blacks who voted Trump and many voters who didn't vote. He has done little for them.
Trump's character is going to be used for sure. We are talking about a guy who couldn't tell the truth to save his own life. Even if he does, how do we know it? He'll contradict himself. There wouldn't be any reason to trust him.
Voter apathy. If Clinton don't run (and I don't see why she even would,) there was a HUGE portion of thhe voting populous that didn't vote, maybe they'll realize the stakes are too high to stay home in November 2020...
1) Obamacare was crap way before Trump took office. Remember the Democrats sold it in 2010 that everybody's premiums will go down and you can keep your doctor....all lies but we are now supposed to trust the Democrats to fix it? It sure didn't work for Hillary in 2016 when she ran that she could fix it but never gave believable details. Obamacare can't work unless you raise premiums on the Middle class and raise taxes. Something the Democrats will NEVER admit and keep lying about it.
2) yeah, the people will revolt for a law that Obama passed in 2015 over the internet that the majority of people will not see a difference in their lives. Yeah, like things were so awful on the internet before 2015.
3) Identity Politics: yeah Democrats are good at that. That train is never late with the Democrats.....and tell me again what have the Democrats done for blacks and women during the 8 years of Obama?
4) Trump's character? yeah that worked so well for you Democrats in 2016, let's try it again in 2020.....lol
is that your Democrat agenda to win in 2020? Obamacare, internet, Identity politics and Trump bashing? LMAO! Good luck!......might as well use Hillary's slogan of "stronger together", it has a better catch
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