538 Blog: Democrats May Already Be 35% of the Way To a House Majority

[Bureaucat]

Originally Posted by t206

538 has proven itself inaccurate and irrelevant. Why not just flip a coin and go with those results?

I don’t think you read the article. What it said was going back to 1992, there have been 26 congressional seats where the congressman in question won re-election in a Presidential year while his party’s presidential candidate lost that same district. In cases where that congressman retired rather than run for re-election two years later, his party lost all 26 times. There are enough such Republican open seats this year to get the D’s 35% of the way to recapturing the house, if the trend since 1992 holds. There's no projection by 538 at all. They just stated fact. Whether that holds through 2018, only time will tell.

[Listener2307]

538 Blog: Democrats May Already Be 35% of the Way To a House Majority

Trump will still be president, and much of what he is doing consists of undoing executive orders and having department heads reduce regulations. House doesn't get to vote on those things.

I don't see that it matters much if The House shifts. Or The Senate, either. But that's pretty unlikely.

[tripleh]

or they "may not" be... stupid weasel words game.